Birzebbuga
vs
Mosta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birzebbuga
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Birzebbuga is the favourite, not a value bet.
Birzebbuga vs Mosta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birzebbuga vs Mosta
| Probability | Birzebbuga | Draw | Mosta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.5% | 25.4% | 32.1% |
| Market | 39.0% | 27.0% | 34.0% |
| Final | 39.9% | 26.6% | 33.5% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.4% | -0.5% |
Why Birzebbuga
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.40 − 1).
Birzebbuga vs Mosta match preview
Birzebbuga faces Mosta in the Malta Premier League with a slight edge in the probabilities, as Birzebbuga has a 39% chance of winning compared to Mosta's 34%. The most likely scoreline projected by the model is 2-1 in favor of Birzebbuga, with an expected goals tally of 1.72 for Birzebbuga and 1.47 for Mosta. Both teams have shown a propensity for scoring, with the model indicating a 64% likelihood that both teams will find the net.
In terms of recent form, Birzebbuga has recorded two draws, one win, and three losses in their last six matches, while Mosta has struggled with six consecutive matches without a win, including four draws. The head-to-head record favors Birzebbuga, who has won once and drawn once in their last two encounters with Mosta. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birzebbuga and Mosta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Birzebbuga and Mosta attack and defence ratings
Birzebbuga
Mosta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birzebbuga vs Mosta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birzebbuga | 39.9% | 2.51 | +0.9% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birzebbuga | 39.9% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Mosta | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birzebbuga win | 22.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Birzebbuga vs Mosta stats
Birzebbuga and Mosta recent form
| Birzebbuga |
DDWLDL |
| Mosta |
LDLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birzebbuga and Mosta season so far
Birzebbuga record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Mosta record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birzebbuga vs Mosta head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Mosta | Birzebbuga | Malta Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Mosta | Birzebbuga | Friendlies Clubs | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birzebbuga vs Mosta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 27.0%, away 34.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 3.35 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.26 | 3.35 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.31 | 2.72 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .