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Malta Premier League · ·Matchday 12

Floriana vs Hibernians

Garuda Lions Prediction: Floriana

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.36.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Floriana is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Floriana

Centenary Stadium

Floriana 47%
Draw 26%
Hibernians 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Floriana wins
47%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
63%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Floriana vs Hibernians overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Floriana vs Hibernians

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFlorianaDrawHibernians
Model47.5%24.9%27.6%
Market46.6%26.8%26.7%
Final46.8%26.3%26.9%
Edge+0.2%-0.5%+0.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Floriana

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.36.

Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (our 46.8% × 2.00 − 1).

Floriana vs Hibernians match preview

Floriana faces Hibernians in the Malta Premier League, with our model assigning a 47% probability of a Floriana victory, while Hibernians have a 28% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Floriana, occurring with a 9% probability. The model also predicts a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 63%.

In terms of recent form, Floriana has recorded two losses, followed by three draws and a win, while Hibernians have shown a stronger performance with three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Historically, Floriana has dominated their recent encounters, winning seven out of the last ten meetings, with only one win for Hibernians.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Floriana ↓ / Hibernians → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Floriana and Hibernians expected goals

Floriana 1.82
Hibernians 1.36

Total expected goals: 3.18

Floriana and Hibernians attack and defence ratings

Floriana

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Hibernians

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Floriana vs Hibernians markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Floriana 46.8% 2.14 +0.2% 2.00
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.6% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.3% 1.58 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.7% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.5% 1.90 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Floriana46.8%
Draw26.3%
Hibernians26.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%
Both teams to scoreYes63.3%
No36.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.1%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)53.2%
Handicap -1Floriana win26.8%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss52.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.4%
1-27.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Floriana vs Hibernians stats

Floriana and Hibernians recent form

newest first
Floriana LLDDDW
Hibernians WDWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Floriana and Hibernians season so far

league record

Floriana record

  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Hibernians record

  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.

Floriana vs Hibernians head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Floriana wins 2Draws 1Hibernians wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-20HiberniansFlorianaMalta Premier League0-4
2026-02-22FlorianaHiberniansMalta Premier League4-1
2025-10-03HiberniansFlorianaMalta Premier League0-1
2025-03-29FlorianaHiberniansPremier League1-1
2024-11-30FlorianaHiberniansPremier League2-0
2024-09-22FlorianaHiberniansPremier League1-1
2024-02-10HiberniansFlorianaPremier League0-2
2023-09-26FlorianaHiberniansPremier League2-0
2023-08-04HiberniansFlorianaFriendlies Clubs0-2
2023-04-21FlorianaHiberniansPremier League2-5

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Floriana vs Hibernians odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.6%, draw 26.8%, away 26.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.93 3.34 3.43
Bet365 2.00 3.40 3.10
Betano 2.00 3.35 3.45
Betfair 1.95 3.40 3.30
Dafabet 1.93 3.50 3.65
Marathonbet 1.91 3.34 3.34
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.94 ▲ +0.10
X 3.38 ▼ -0.17
2 3.38 ▼ -0.52

2 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Floriana Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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