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Malta Premier League · ·Matchday 12

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans

Garuda Lions Prediction: Hamrun Spartans

1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hamrun Spartans is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Hamrun Spartans

Centenary Stadium

Marsaxlokk 31%
Draw 26%
Hamrun Spartans 43%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Hamrun Spartans wins
43%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
64%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
8% of simulated outcomes

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMarsaxlokkDrawHamrun Spartans
Model43.3%25.5%31.2%
Market27.2%26.3%46.5%
Final31.2%26.1%42.7%
Edge+4.0%-0.2%-3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.7% per unit staked (our 42.7% × 2.00 − 1).

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans match preview

Marsaxlokk faces Hamrun Spartans in a Malta Premier League match with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Marsaxlokk has a 31% chance of winning, while Hamrun Spartans holds a 43% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Hamrun Spartans, with an expectation of 1.72 goals for Marsaxlokk and 1.44 for Hamrun Spartans.

In terms of recent form, Marsaxlokk has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Hamrun Spartans have drawn four times and won twice in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Marsaxlokk with four wins and Hamrun Spartans with five wins in their last ten encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Marsaxlokk ↓ / Hamrun Spartan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans expected goals

Marsaxlokk 1.72
Hamrun Spartans 1.44

Total expected goals: 3.16

Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans attack and defence ratings

Marsaxlokk

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Hamrun Spartans

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hamrun Spartans 42.7% 2.34 -3.8% 2.00
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.1% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.6% 1.57 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.8% 1.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Marsaxlokk31.2%
Draw26.1%
Hamrun Spartans42.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%
Both teams to scoreYes63.6%
No36.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.3%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)68.8%
Handicap -1Hamrun Spartans win14.7%
Push (exactly one goal)16.5%
Loss68.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-19.0%
1-27.6%
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Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans stats

Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans recent form

newest first
Marsaxlokk WLLWWL
Hamrun Spartans DWDDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans season so far

league record

Marsaxlokk record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hamrun Spartans record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Marsaxlokk wins 1Draws 5Hamrun Spartans wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-18Hamrun SpartansMarsaxlokkMalta Premier League4-1
2026-05-09MarsaxlokkHamrun SpartansMalta Premier League2-1
2026-04-11MarsaxlokkHamrun SpartansMalta Premier League3-2
2026-02-23Hamrun SpartansMarsaxlokkMalta Premier League2-0
2025-12-14Hamrun SpartansMarsaxlokkMalta Premier League1-3
2025-09-23MarsaxlokkHamrun SpartansMalta Premier League0-2
2025-04-30MarsaxlokkHamrun SpartansPremier League0-1
2025-01-05MarsaxlokkHamrun SpartansPremier League1-6
2024-11-02Hamrun SpartansMarsaxlokkPremier League2-3
2024-08-06MarsaxlokkHamrun SpartansFriendlies Clubs1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.2%, draw 26.3%, away 46.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.36 3.40 1.93
Bet365 3.25 3.40 1.95
Betano 3.35 3.45 2.00
Betfair 3.25 3.60 1.91
Dafabet 3.35 3.45 1.95
Marathonbet 3.28 3.40 1.91
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Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.

Prediction snapshot 2 Hamrun Spartans Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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