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Malta Premier League · ·Matchday 12

Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick

Garuda Lions Prediction: Birkirkara

1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Birkirkara is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Birkirkara

Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun

Birkirkara 46%
Draw 27%
Zabbar St. Patrick 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Birkirkara wins
46%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
91%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
54%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
8% of simulated outcomes

Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBirkirkaraDrawZabbar St. Patrick
Model33.8%29.0%37.2%
Market49.9%26.1%23.9%
Final45.9%26.8%27.3%
Edge-4.0%+0.7%+3.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.1% per unit staked (our 45.9% × 1.85 − 1).

Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick match preview

Birkirkara faces Zabbar St. Patrick in the Malta Premier League with a probability of 46% for a Birkirkara victory, while both teams have a 27% chance of a draw or a Zabbar St. Patrick win. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Birkirkara, with an 8% likelihood. Expected goals are close, with Birkirkara at 1.26 and Zabbar St. Patrick at 1.33, indicating a competitive match.

In terms of recent form, Birkirkara has recorded two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Zabbar St. Patrick has two wins, a loss, and two additional losses. Historically, Birkirkara has dominated their recent encounters, winning 7 out of the last 8 matches against Zabbar St. Patrick. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Birkirkara ↓ / Zabbar St. Pat → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 9% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Birkirkara and Zabbar St. Patrick expected goals

Birkirkara 1.26
Zabbar St. Patrick 1.33

Total expected goals: 2.59

Birkirkara and Zabbar St. Patrick attack and defence ratings

Birkirkara

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Zabbar St. Patrick

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Birkirkara 45.9% 2.18 -4.0% 1.85
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.1% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.9% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.2% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Birkirkara45.9%
Draw26.8%
Zabbar St. Patrick27.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%
Both teams to scoreYes53.9%
No46.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.7%
12 (either side)73.2%
X2 (draw or away)54.1%
Handicap -1Birkirkara win15.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss66.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
0-08.8%
0-18.7%
Compare prices for this pick

Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick stats

Birkirkara and Zabbar St. Patrick recent form

newest first
Birkirkara DWDLLW
Zabbar St. Patrick WWLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Birkirkara and Zabbar St. Patrick season so far

league record

Birkirkara record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Zabbar St. Patrick record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

7Birkirkara wins 0Draws 1Zabbar St. Patrick wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-18Zabbar St. PatrickBirkirkaraMalta Premier League0-2
2026-07-18BirkirkaraZabbar St. PatrickFriendlies Clubs2-1
2026-04-11BirkirkaraZabbar St. PatrickMalta Premier League1-0
2026-03-04BirkirkaraZabbar St. PatrickFA Trophy2-1
2026-02-21BirkirkaraZabbar St. PatrickMalta Premier League0-3
2025-10-03Zabbar St. PatrickBirkirkaraMalta Premier League0-2
2025-02-23Zabbar St. PatrickBirkirkaraPremier League0-3
2024-08-23BirkirkaraZabbar St. PatrickPremier League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Birkirkara vs Zabbar St. Patrick odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.9%, draw 26.1%, away 23.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.81 3.46 3.74
Bet365 1.83 3.50 3.50
Betano 1.85 3.40 3.85
Betfair 1.80 3.50 3.90
Dafabet 1.85 3.55 3.90
Marathonbet 1.79 3.46 3.64
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Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.

Prediction snapshot 1 Birkirkara Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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