Birkirkara
vs
Birzebbuga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birkirkara
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.68.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga
| Probability | Birkirkara | Draw | Birzebbuga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.4% | 31.3% | 18.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.4% | 31.3% | 18.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Birkirkara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.68.
Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga match preview
Birkirkara enters this match against Birzebbuga with a probability of winning set at 50%, while Birzebbuga has an 18% chance of securing a victory. The likelihood of a draw stands at 31%. The most probable scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Birkirkara, with a 17% chance of occurring.
In terms of expected goals, Birkirkara is projected to score 1.31, compared to Birzebbuga's 0.68. The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match is 32%, and the chance of both teams scoring is estimated at 37%. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Birkirkara recording draws and losses, while Birzebbuga has struggled with a series of losses and one win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birkirkara and Birzebbuga expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Birkirkara and Birzebbuga attack and defence ratings
Birkirkara
Birzebbuga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 50.4% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| Birzebbuga | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.3% |
| No | 62.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birkirkara win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga stats
Birkirkara and Birzebbuga recent form
| Birkirkara |
DLLWDL |
| Birzebbuga |
WLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birkirkara and Birzebbuga season so far
Birkirkara record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birzebbuga record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.