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Malta Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Valletta FC vs Balzan FC

2 – 2 Full time

6′Macula
14′A. Dimeji
26′P. Sekulovic
28′Z. Grech
30′Leo Fernandes
38′S. Arab
45′R. Prsa
45′N. Pulis
45′Alex Tanque
46′M. EllulThaylor
48′Z. Grech
48′Z. Grech
51′V. Kuach YuelN. Djoric
53′P. SekulovicM. Sylla
53′J. AzzopardiB. Paiber
70′A. ZammitK. Ewurum
75′R. Prsa
81′Alex TanqueB. Gomes
86′S. Guehi

Tony Bezzina Stadium, PaolaReferee: E. Barbara

Valletta FC 50%
Draw 27%
Balzan FC 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Valletta FC vs Balzan FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Valletta FC vs Balzan FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityValletta FCDrawBalzan FC
Model33.8%27.2%39.0%
Market54.8%26.3%18.9%
Final49.6%26.5%23.9%
Edge-21.0%+0.9%+20.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Valletta FC

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Valletta FC ↓ / Balzan FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Valletta FC and Balzan FC expected goals

Valletta FC 1.38
Balzan FC 1.49

Total expected goals: 2.87

Valletta FC and Balzan FC attack and defence ratings

Valletta FC

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Balzan FC

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Valletta FC vs Balzan FC: result vs prediction

Valletta FC 2 – 2 Balzan FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Valletta FC vs Balzan FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Valletta FC 49.6% 2.02 -21.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.6% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.1% 1.69 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.2% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Valletta FC49.6%
Draw26.5%
Balzan FC23.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%
Both teams to scoreYes59.1%
No40.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.1%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)50.4%
Handicap -1Valletta FC win15.9%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss66.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
1-28.7%
2-18.0%

Valletta FC vs Balzan FC stats

Valletta FC and Balzan FC recent form

newest first
Valletta FC WLWWLL
Balzan FC WWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Valletta FC vs Balzan FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Valletta FC wins 3Draws 1Balzan FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-11Balzan FCValletta FCFriendlies Clubs1-2
2024-04-21Valletta FCBalzan FCPremier League1-0
2023-12-16Balzan FCValletta FCPremier League0-0
2023-03-10Valletta FCBalzan FCPremier League0-0
2022-10-29Balzan FCValletta FCPremier League1-3
2022-04-23Balzan FCValletta FCPremier League1-1
2021-12-19Balzan FCValletta FCPremier League2-1
2021-08-21Valletta FCBalzan FCPremier League1-0
2021-01-22Valletta FCBalzan FCPremier League1-0
2020-09-26Balzan FCValletta FCPremier League0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Valletta FC vs Balzan FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.8%, draw 26.3%, away 18.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.65 3.44 4.89
Bet365 1.53 3.70 5.25
BetVictor 1.65 3.50 5.00
Betano 1.75 3.40 4.55
Marathonbet 1.63 3.44 4.80
Pinnacle 1.67 3.43 4.67
William Hill 1.70 3.20 4.80

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.