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Malta Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Hibernians vs Birkirkara

1 – 1 Full time

15′A. Sobczyk
18′A. GarziaJ. Vassallo
38′B. Kristensen
45′A. Sobczyk
46′A. SobczykJ. Mickels
49′J. Mbong
52′K. Shaw
54′Frazan
63′F. JankovicR. Fraga
63′B. KristensenM. Ellul
63′MatosJ. Wahling
64′N. MicallefK. Reid
64′L. PahamaF. Sasere
75′M. CardinaliP. Sanchez
76′F. Sasere
81′S. BrewerJefferson Vinicius
81′FernandinhoJ. Busuttil
90′K. Reid

Referee: A. Johnson

Hibernians 41%
Draw 30%
Birkirkara 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Hibernians vs Birkirkara overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hibernians vs Birkirkara

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHiberniansDrawBirkirkara
Model27.7%36.8%35.5%
Market44.9%27.4%27.7%
Final40.6%29.8%29.6%
Edge-17.3%+9.4%+7.8%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hibernians ↓ / Birkirkara → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 20% 16% 1 13% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 80%
2+ goals 51%
3+ goals 24%
No goals 20%

Hibernians and Birkirkara expected goals

Hibernians 0.77
Birkirkara 0.91

Total expected goals: 1.68

Hibernians and Birkirkara attack and defence ratings

Hibernians

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Birkirkara

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hibernians vs Birkirkara: result vs prediction

Hibernians 1 – 1 Birkirkara

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Hibernians vs Birkirkara markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hibernians 40.6% 2.46 -17.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 76.4% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score No 66.7% 1.50 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 70.4% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 72.3% 1.38 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hibernians40.6%
Draw29.8%
Birkirkara29.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.523.6%
Under 2.576.4%
Both teams to scoreYes33.3%
No66.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.4%
12 (either side)70.2%
X2 (draw or away)59.4%
Handicap -1Hibernians win9.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss72.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-020.0%
0-115.7%
1-114.4%

Hibernians vs Birkirkara stats

Hibernians and Birkirkara recent form

newest first
Hibernians LDLWLW
Birkirkara LLWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hibernians vs Birkirkara head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Hibernians wins 2Draws 5Birkirkara wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18HiberniansBirkirkaraMalta Premier League0-0
2026-01-18BirkirkaraHiberniansMalta Premier League3-0
2025-09-13HiberniansBirkirkaraMalta Premier League2-1
2025-05-18BirkirkaraHiberniansFA Trophy1-2
2025-03-01BirkirkaraHiberniansPremier League2-0
2024-12-14BirkirkaraHiberniansPremier League0-2
2024-09-14HiberniansBirkirkaraPremier League0-2
2024-02-17BirkirkaraHiberniansPremier League1-1
2023-09-30HiberniansBirkirkaraPremier League0-1
2023-04-02BirkirkaraHiberniansPremier League5-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hibernians vs Birkirkara odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.9%, draw 27.4%, away 27.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.02 3.28 3.32
Bet365 1.95 3.30 3.25
Betano 2.12 3.25 3.20
Betfair 2.00 3.40 3.40
Marathonbet 2.00 3.28 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▼ -0.03
X 3.28 ▲ +0.03
2 3.25 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .