Malta Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 3
Mosta
vs
Birkirkara
1 – 0 Full time
| 22′ | K. Zammit | ||
| 32′ | E. Agyiri | ||
| 35′ | P. Afriyie | ||
| 58′ | E. AgyiriE. Ugwu | ||
| 58′ | N. PortelliP. Ohaka | ||
| 58′ | Wanderson GotinhaG. Acheampong | ||
| 64′ | FernandinhoL. Pahama | ||
| 64′ | Jefferson ViniciusS. Brewer | ||
| 64′ | A. DjordjevicPablo Gabriel | ||
| 75′ | GiancarloO. Ezejiofor | ||
| 75′ | J. VassalloJ. Busuttil | ||
| 75′ | A. GarziaN. Micallef | ||
| 90′ | P. Ohaka | ||
| 90′ | FogueteS. Vassallo |
Mosta
32%
Draw
34%
Birkirkara
34%
Mosta vs Birkirkara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mosta vs Birkirkara
| Probability | Mosta | Draw | Birkirkara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.0% | 34.4% | 33.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.0% | 34.4% | 33.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
84%
2+ goals
58%
3+ goals
30%
No goals
16%
Mosta and Birkirkara expected goals
Mosta
0.94
Birkirkara
0.97
Total expected goals: 1.91
Mosta and Birkirkara attack and defence ratings
Mosta
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Birkirkara
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
0.63 -37%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mosta vs Birkirkara: result vs prediction
Mosta 1 – 0 Birkirkara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mosta vs Birkirkara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 34.4% | 2.91 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 32.0% |
| Draw | 34.4% | |
| Birkirkara | 33.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.2% |
| No | 60.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birkirkara win | 13.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 66.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.2% |
| 1-1 | 14.9% | |
| 0-1 | 13.0% |
Mosta vs Birkirkara stats
Mosta and Birkirkara recent form
| Mosta |
WWWDLD |
| Birkirkara |
WWDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mosta vs Birkirkara head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
0Mosta wins
2Draws
1Birkirkara wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Birkirkara | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Mosta | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Birkirkara | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.