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Malta Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 2

Mosta vs Balzan FC

2 – 1 Full time

Centenary Stadium

Mosta 31%
Draw 28%
Balzan FC 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Mosta vs Balzan FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mosta vs Balzan FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMostaDrawBalzan FC
Model40.7%29.5%29.8%
Market28.2%27.5%44.3%
Final31.3%28.0%40.7%
Edge+12.5%+2.0%-14.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mosta ↓ / Balzan FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 8% 1 10% 14% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Mosta and Balzan FC expected goals

Mosta 1.34
Balzan FC 1.13

Total expected goals: 2.48

Mosta and Balzan FC attack and defence ratings

Mosta

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Balzan FC

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mosta vs Balzan FC: result vs prediction

Mosta 2 – 1 Balzan FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Mosta vs Balzan FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Balzan FC 40.7% 2.46 -14.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.0% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.3% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.0% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.8% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mosta31.3%
Draw28.0%
Balzan FC40.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%
Both teams to scoreYes51.3%
No48.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.3%
12 (either side)72.0%
X2 (draw or away)68.7%
Handicap -1Balzan FC win12.6%
Push (exactly one goal)17.6%
Loss69.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
1-010.1%
0-09.7%

Mosta vs Balzan FC stats

Mosta and Balzan FC recent form

newest first
Mosta WWDLDW
Balzan FC D

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mosta vs Balzan FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Mosta vs Balzan FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.2%, draw 27.5%, away 44.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.16 3.24 2.10
Bet365 3.50 3.50 1.83
Betfair 3.40 3.40 2.00
Dafabet 3.20 3.30 2.14
Marathonbet 3.10 3.24 2.08
Superbet 3.30 3.35 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.25 —
X 3.33 —
2 2.06 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .