Zabbar St. Patrick
vs
Birzebbuga
1 – 0 Full time
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Birzebbuga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zabbar St. Patrick vs Birzebbuga
| Probability | Zabbar St. Patrick | Draw | Birzebbuga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.1% | 20.6% | 16.3% |
| Market | 30.3% | 28.4% | 41.3% |
| Final | 38.5% | 26.4% | 35.1% |
| Edge | +32.8% | -7.8% | -25.0% |
Why Zabbar St. Patrick
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Zabbar St. Patrick below the model: +32.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zabbar St. Patrick and Birzebbuga expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
Zabbar St. Patrick and Birzebbuga attack and defence ratings
Zabbar St. Patrick
Birzebbuga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Birzebbuga: result vs prediction
Zabbar St. Patrick 1 – 0 Birzebbuga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Birzebbuga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 38.5% | 2.60 | +32.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Zabbar St. Patrick win | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 38.5% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Birzebbuga | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zabbar St. Patrick win | 41.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 36.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Birzebbuga stats
Zabbar St. Patrick and Birzebbuga recent form
| Zabbar St. Patrick |
LWLWDD |
| Birzebbuga |
L |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Birzebbuga head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Birzebbuga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.3%, draw 28.4%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 3.16 | 2.19 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 3.16 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 3.00 | 3.19 | 2.18 |
| SBO | 2.70 | 2.94 | 2.12 |
| Superbet | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .