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Montenegro First League · Postponed ·Matchday 10

Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić

Garuda Lions Prediction: Dečić

0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability

Stadion u Parku, Tivat

Arsenal Tivat 23%
Draw 29%
Dečić 48%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Dečić wins
48%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
85%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
41%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
13% of simulated outcomes

Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityArsenal TivatDrawDečić
Model29.9%33.6%36.5%
Market20.1%27.5%52.4%
Final22.6%29.0%48.4%
Edge+9.8%+6.1%-15.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Dečić

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić match preview

Arsenal Tivat faces Dečić in the Montenegro First League, with the probabilities indicating a competitive match. Arsenal Tivat has a 23% chance of winning, while Dečić is favored at 48%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 0.93 for Arsenal Tivat and 1.06 for Dečić.

Recent form shows Arsenal Tivat struggling with one win in their last six matches, while Dečić has shown improvement with two wins in their last three games. The head-to-head record is closely contested, with each team securing three wins and four draws in their last ten encounters. The model suggests a 41% likelihood of both teams scoring and a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Arsenal Tivat ↓ / Dečić → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 13% 8% 1 11% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 60%
3+ goals 32%
No goals 15%

Arsenal Tivat and Dečić expected goals

Arsenal Tivat 0.93
Dečić 1.06

Total expected goals: 1.99

Arsenal Tivat and Dečić attack and defence ratings

Arsenal Tivat

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Dečić

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Montenegro First League

Before and after this match

Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dečić 48.4% 2.07 -15.9% 1.79
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 68.0% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score No 59.1% 1.69 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.4% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.5% 1.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Arsenal Tivat22.6%
Draw29.0%
Dečić48.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.0%
Under 2.568.0%
Both teams to scoreYes40.9%
No59.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)51.6%
12 (either side)71.0%
X2 (draw or away)77.4%
Handicap -1Dečić win15.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss63.5%
Correct score (top 3)0-015.0%
1-114.8%
0-113.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić stats

Arsenal Tivat and Dečić recent form

newest first
Arsenal Tivat LWLLLD
Dečić DLDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Arsenal Tivat and Dečić season so far

league record

Arsenal Tivat record

  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.

Dečić record

  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Arsenal Tivat wins 4Draws 3Dečić wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-02DečićArsenal TivatMontenegro First League0-0
2026-07-04DečićArsenal TivatFriendlies Clubs4-1
2026-05-20DečićArsenal TivatMontenegro First League1-2
2026-03-21Arsenal TivatDečićMontenegro First League0-1
2025-11-30DečićArsenal TivatMontenegro First League4-2
2025-09-21Arsenal TivatDečićMontenegro First League1-1
2025-04-12Arsenal TivatDečićFirst League1-0
2025-02-22DečićArsenal TivatFirst League0-0
2024-10-06Arsenal TivatDečićFirst League0-0
2024-09-18DečićArsenal TivatFirst League1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.1%, draw 27.5%, away 52.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.58 3.28 1.71
Bet365 4.50 3.40 1.70
BetVictor 4.60 3.30 1.73
Betano 4.45 3.35 1.75
Betfair 4.40 3.30 1.73
Dafabet 4.50 3.35 1.79
Marathonbet 4.45 3.28 1.69
Pinnacle 4.50 3.31 1.76
William Hill 4.33 3.00 1.75
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.50 —
X 3.30 ▼ -0.07
2 1.73 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .

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