Arsenal Tivat
vs
Dečić
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dečić
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dečić is the favourite, not a value bet.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić
| Probability | Arsenal Tivat | Draw | Dečić |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.9% | 33.6% | 36.5% |
| Market | 20.1% | 27.5% | 52.4% |
| Final | 22.6% | 29.0% | 48.4% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +1.5% | -4.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.3% per unit staked (our 48.4% × 1.79 − 1).
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić match preview
Arsenal Tivat faces Dečić in what promises to be a closely contested match. The probabilities indicate a 23% chance of an Arsenal Tivat victory, while Dečić holds a 48% probability of winning, with a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 13%. Both teams are expected to have similar performance levels, with expected goals at 1.02 for Arsenal Tivat and 1.01 for Dečić.
Recent form shows Arsenal Tivat with a record of L-D-D-L-L-W, while Dečić has L-W-L-L-D-L. In their last ten head-to-head encounters, both teams have achieved three wins each, alongside four draws. The model indicates a 32% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić attack and defence ratings
Arsenal Tivat
Dečić
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dečić | 48.4% | 2.07 | -4.0% | 1.79 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal Tivat | 22.6% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Dečić | 48.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dečić win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 66.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 13.1% |
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić stats
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić recent form
| Arsenal Tivat |
LDDLLW |
| Dečić |
LWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arsenal Tivat and Dečić season so far
Arsenal Tivat record
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Dečić record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Dečić | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League | 0-0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Dečić | Arsenal Tivat | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Dečić | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Arsenal Tivat | Dečić | Montenegro First League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Dečić | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League | 4-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Arsenal Tivat | Dečić | Montenegro First League | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Arsenal Tivat | Dečić | First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Dečić | Arsenal Tivat | First League | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Arsenal Tivat | Dečić | First League | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-18 | Dečić | Arsenal Tivat | First League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.1%, draw 27.5%, away 52.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.58 | 3.28 | 1.71 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.30 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 4.45 | 3.35 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.40 | 3.30 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 4.50 | 3.35 | 1.79 |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 3.28 | 1.69 |
| Pinnacle | 4.50 | 3.31 | 1.76 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.00 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .