Ittihad Tanger
vs
Maghreb Fès
Garuda Lions Prediction: Maghreb Fès
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
| Probability | Ittihad Tanger | Draw | Maghreb Fès |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.2% | 32.7% | 43.1% |
| Market | 23.3% | 33.6% | 43.1% |
| Final | 23.5% | 33.4% | 43.1% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.9% | +0.0% |
Why Maghreb Fès
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès match preview
Ittihad Tanger faces Maghreb Fès in the Botola Pro with kickoff scheduled for October 14, 2026. According to our model, Ittihad Tanger has a 24% chance of winning, while Maghreb Fès holds a 43% probability of victory, and a draw is estimated at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 15% likelihood. Expected goals for Ittihad Tanger stand at 0.82, contrasting with Maghreb Fès's 1.18.
In terms of recent form, Ittihad Tanger has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Maghreb Fès is in better shape, with four wins and two draws in their recent outings. Historical head-to-head results show Ittihad Tanger with three wins, five draws, and two wins for Maghreb Fès in their last ten encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ittihad Tanger and Maghreb Fès expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Ittihad Tanger and Maghreb Fès attack and defence ratings
Ittihad Tanger
Maghreb Fès
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat — team news & stats
- Renaissance Berkane v CR Khemis Zemamra — match page
- FUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca — team news & stats
- CODM Meknès v UTS Rabat — match page
- Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan — team news & stats
- Widad Témara vs Kawkab Marrakech
- Wydad AC v Amal Tiznit — match page
Before and after this match
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maghreb Fès | 43.1% | 2.32 | +0.0% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ittihad Tanger | 23.5% |
| Draw | 33.4% | |
| Maghreb Fès | 43.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.1% |
| No | 59.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maghreb Fès win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.8% |
| 0-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès stats
Ittihad Tanger and Maghreb Fès recent form
| Ittihad Tanger |
LDWWLD |
| Maghreb Fès |
DWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Maghreb Fès | Ittihad Tanger | Botola Pro | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Ittihad Tanger | Maghreb Fès | Botola Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Maghreb Fès | Ittihad Tanger | Botola Pro | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Ittihad Tanger | Maghreb Fès | Botola Pro | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-27 | Maghreb Fès | Ittihad Tanger | Cup | 2-2 |
| 2024-03-09 | Maghreb Fès | Ittihad Tanger | Botola Pro | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Ittihad Tanger | Maghreb Fès | Botola Pro | 2-2 |
| 2023-04-07 | Maghreb Fès | Ittihad Tanger | Botola Pro | 0-1 |
| 2023-02-10 | Maghreb Fès | Ittihad Tanger | Cup | 0-2 |
| 2022-10-28 | Ittihad Tanger | Maghreb Fès | Botola Pro | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.3%, draw 33.6%, away 43.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.28 | 2.62 | 2.04 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 2.88 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 2.70 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.95 | 2.75 | 2.16 |
| Marathonbet | 4.10 | 2.63 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 4.59 | 2.34 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 2.75 | 2.10 |