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CAF Champions League · Full time ·2nd Preliminary Round

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas

1 – 1 Full time

31′A. Chabani
90′S. Bamba
Maghreb Fès 61%
Draw 28%
ASEC Mimosas 12%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMaghreb FèsDrawASEC Mimosas
Model53.8%30.1%16.1%
Market63.1%26.9%10.0%
Final60.7%27.7%11.5%
Edge-2.3%+0.8%+1.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Maghreb Fès

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.64.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Maghreb Fès ↓ / ASEC Mimosas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 1 17% 13% 2 13% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 14%

Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas expected goals

Maghreb Fès 1.38
ASEC Mimosas 0.64

Total expected goals: 2.03

Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas attack and defence ratings

Maghreb Fès

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.83 -17%

ASEC Mimosas

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas: result vs prediction

Maghreb Fès 1 – 1 ASEC Mimosas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures

CAF Champions League

Before and after this match

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Maghreb Fès 60.7% 1.65 -2.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.0% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score No 63.4% 1.58 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.5% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.3% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Maghreb Fès60.7%
Draw27.7%
ASEC Mimosas11.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.0%
Under 2.567.0%
Both teams to scoreYes36.6%
No63.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.5%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)39.3%
Handicap -1Maghreb Fès win27.2%
Push (exactly one goal)26.5%
Loss46.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-017.1%
0-014.4%
1-112.9%

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas stats

Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas recent form

newest first
Maghreb Fès LDWWDW
ASEC Mimosas WDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.1%, draw 26.9%, away 10.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.42 3.35 9.35
Bet365 1.44 3.60 6.50
BetVictor 1.44 3.30 10.00
Marathonbet 1.41 3.35 8.70
Pinnacle 1.42 3.35 7.77
William Hill 1.44 3.20 9.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.43 ▼ -0.02
X 3.35 ▼ -0.25
2 9.02 ▲ +2.19

4 snapshots recorded, from .