Maghreb Fès
vs
ASEC Mimosas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Maghreb Fès
1 – 0 Predicted score · 20% model probability
Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas
| Probability | Maghreb Fès | Draw | ASEC Mimosas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.7% | 30.2% | 13.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.7% | 30.2% | 13.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Maghreb Fès
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas match preview
Maghreb Fès will face ASEC Mimosas in the CAF Champions League on October 18, 2026. The model indicates a strong probability of Maghreb Fès winning at 57%, while a draw is estimated at 30% and ASEC Mimosas at 13%. The expected goals for Maghreb Fès stand at 1.36, compared to ASEC Mimosas' 0.52, highlighting a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Maghreb Fès has recorded a series of results with their latest matches being D-W-W-D-W-W, while ASEC Mimosas has shown mixed results with W-D-W-L. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Maghreb Fès, with a 20% probability. The chances of over 2.5 goals are at 29%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 31%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.88
Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas attack and defence ratings
Maghreb Fès
ASEC Mimosas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maghreb Fès | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maghreb Fès | 56.7% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| ASEC Mimosas | 13.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.3% |
| No | 68.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maghreb Fès win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.9% | |
| Loss | 43.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.6% |
| 0-0 | 16.3% | |
| 2-0 | 14.1% |
Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas stats
Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas recent form
| Maghreb Fès |
DWWDWW |
| ASEC Mimosas |
WDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.