African Stars
vs
Orlando Pirates
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orlando Pirates
0 – 1 Predicted score · 20% model probability
African Stars vs Orlando Pirates overview
Garuda Lions analysis: African Stars vs Orlando Pirates
| Probability | African Stars | Draw | Orlando Pirates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.1% | 29.0% | 59.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 11.1% | 29.0% | 59.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Orlando Pirates
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.47.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
African Stars vs Orlando Pirates match preview
In the upcoming CAF Champions League match, African Stars will face Orlando Pirates on October 17, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of an Orlando Pirates victory, assigning them a 60% probability of winning, while African Stars have just an 11% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 20% probability, reflecting the expected goals of 0.47 for African Stars and 1.42 for Orlando Pirates.
Recent form shows African Stars struggling with a record of one win and three losses in their last four matches. In contrast, Orlando Pirates are in solid form, having won four of their last five games, along with one draw. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score stand at 29%, suggesting a low-scoring encounter is anticipated.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
African Stars and Orlando Pirates expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.89
African Stars and Orlando Pirates attack and defence ratings
African Stars
Orlando Pirates
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
- EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Pyramids FC — team news & stats
- APR vs Zamalek SC
- Star Sport Academy v Renaissance Berkane — match page
- CFFA vs Young Africans — team news & stats
- TP Mazembe v Club Africain — match page
- 15 de Agosto vs Simba — team news & stats
- San-Pédro vs Nouadhibou
- Sidama Bunna vs Al Hilal Omdurman — team news & stats
Before and after this match
African Stars vs Orlando Pirates markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando Pirates | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.9% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | African Stars | 11.1% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Orlando Pirates | 59.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.4% |
| No | 70.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando Pirates win | 31.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.4% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 20.4% |
| 0-0 | 16.1% | |
| 0-2 | 15.2% |
African Stars vs Orlando Pirates stats
African Stars and Orlando Pirates recent form
| African Stars |
WLLL |
| Orlando Pirates |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.