Difaa EL Jadida
vs
Moghreb Tetouan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Difaa EL Jadida
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan
| Probability | Difaa EL Jadida | Draw | Moghreb Tetouan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.7% | 25.7% | 36.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.7% | 25.7% | 36.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan match preview
Difaa EL Jadida and Moghreb Tetouan are set to face off in the Botola Pro, with kickoff scheduled for October 17, 2026. According to our model, Difaa EL Jadida holds a 38% probability of winning, while Moghreb Tetouan has a slightly lower chance at 37%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 26%. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Difaa EL Jadida, with an 8% chance.
Both teams have shown fluctuating recent form; Difaa EL Jadida's last six matches include two wins and four losses or draws, while Moghreb Tetouan has three draws, two losses, and one win. Expected goals suggest a close contest, with Difaa EL Jadida projected at 1.59 and Moghreb Tetouan at 1.57. Additionally, there is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Difaa EL Jadida and Moghreb Tetouan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Difaa EL Jadida and Moghreb Tetouan attack and defence ratings
Difaa EL Jadida
Moghreb Tetouan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Difaa EL Jadida | 37.7% | 2.65 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Difaa EL Jadida | 37.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Moghreb Tetouan | 36.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% |
| No | 35.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Difaa EL Jadida win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan stats
Difaa EL Jadida and Moghreb Tetouan recent form
| Difaa EL Jadida |
WLLLDD |
| Moghreb Tetouan |
DDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Moghreb Tetouan | Difaa EL Jadida | Botola Pro | 1-3 |
| 2024-10-22 | Difaa EL Jadida | Moghreb Tetouan | Botola Pro | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.