Glentoran
vs
Ballymena United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Glentoran
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Glentoran vs Ballymena United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Glentoran vs Ballymena United
| Probability | Glentoran | Draw | Ballymena United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.8% | 29.9% | 27.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.8% | 29.9% | 27.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Glentoran
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Glentoran vs Ballymena United match preview
Glentoran hosts Ballymena United in the Northern Ireland Premiership, with Glentoran holding a 43% probability of winning, while Ballymena United has a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Glentoran, with an expected goals tally of 1.35 for Glentoran compared to 1.03 for Ballymena United. Recent form shows Glentoran with four wins in their last five matches, while Ballymena United has two wins in their last five.
In terms of scoring, there is a 49% probability that both teams will score, and a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. The head-to-head record favors Glentoran, who have won all four of their last encounters against Ballymena United. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Glentoran and Ballymena United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Glentoran and Ballymena United attack and defence ratings
Glentoran
Ballymena United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Glentoran vs Ballymena United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Glentoran | 42.8% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Glentoran | 42.8% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Ballymena United | 27.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Glentoran win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Glentoran vs Ballymena United stats
Glentoran and Ballymena United recent form
| Glentoran |
WDWWWL |
| Ballymena United |
WLWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Glentoran and Ballymena United season so far
Glentoran record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ballymena United record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Glentoran vs Ballymena United head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ballymena United | Glentoran | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Glentoran | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Glentoran | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Ballymena United | Glentoran | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.