Portadown
vs
Linfield
Garuda Lions Prediction: Linfield
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Portadown vs Linfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portadown vs Linfield
| Probability | Portadown | Draw | Linfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.4% | 26.7% | 56.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 16.4% | 26.7% | 56.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Linfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Portadown vs Linfield match preview
Portadown faces Linfield in the Northern Ireland Premiership with a challenging outlook. According to our model, Portadown has a 16% chance of winning, while Linfield is favored at 56%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-1, occurring at a rate of 15%. Portadown's recent form shows a mix of results with two draws, one win, and three losses, whereas Linfield has been in strong form, winning their last five matches.
The expected goals for Portadown stand at 0.71, contrasting with Linfield's 1.56. There is a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring is estimated at 41%. The head-to-head record over the last ten matches favors Linfield significantly, with them securing seven wins compared to Portadown's one.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portadown and Linfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Portadown and Linfield attack and defence ratings
Portadown
Linfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portadown vs Linfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portadown | 16.4% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Linfield | 56.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Linfield win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | |
| 0-2 | 12.0% |
Portadown vs Linfield stats
Portadown and Linfield recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portadown and Linfield season so far
Portadown record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Linfield record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portadown vs Linfield head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Portadown | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Linfield | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Portadown | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Linfield | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2025-01-18 | Portadown | Linfield | Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2024-11-30 | Linfield | Portadown | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-30 | Portadown | Linfield | Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2024-03-10 | Linfield | Portadown | League Cup | 3-1 |
| 2023-01-28 | Portadown | Linfield | Premiership | 1-6 |
| 2022-11-05 | Portadown | Linfield | Premiership | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.