Larne
vs
Portadown
Garuda Lions Prediction: Larne
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Larne vs Portadown overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Larne vs Portadown
| Probability | Larne | Draw | Portadown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.1% | 22.9% | 16.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.1% | 22.9% | 16.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Larne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Larne vs Portadown match preview
Larne hosts Portadown in the Northern Ireland Premiership with a strong probability of winning at 60%, while the chances for a draw stand at 23% and Portadown at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a probability of 10%. Larne's expected goals are 2.02, compared to Portadown's 0.99, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Larne has recorded three wins in their last six matches, while Portadown has won two of their last six. Historically, Larne has had the upper hand in their last 10 encounters, securing 6 wins to Portadown's 3, along with 1 draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 58%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 56%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Larne and Portadown expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Larne and Portadown attack and defence ratings
Larne
Portadown
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Larne vs Portadown markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 60.1% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Portadown | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win | 37.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 10.0% |
Larne vs Portadown stats
Larne and Portadown recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Larne and Portadown season so far
Larne record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portadown record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Larne vs Portadown head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Portadown | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Portadown | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Larne | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Larne | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Portadown | Larne | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Larne | Portadown | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Portadown | Larne | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-24 | Larne | Portadown | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-12 | Portadown | Larne | Premiership | 0-5 |
| 2022-09-17 | Portadown | Larne | Premiership | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.