Cliftonville FC
vs
Larne
Garuda Lions Prediction: Larne
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Larne is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cliftonville FC vs Larne overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cliftonville FC vs Larne
| Probability | Cliftonville FC | Draw | Larne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.4% | 27.3% | 35.3% |
| Market | 20.4% | 25.7% | 53.9% |
| Final | 24.7% | 26.1% | 49.2% |
| Edge | +4.2% | +0.4% | -4.6% |
Why Larne
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.9% per unit staked (our 49.2% × 1.75 − 1).
Cliftonville FC vs Larne match preview
Cliftonville FC faces Larne in the Northern Ireland Premiership with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Cliftonville FC has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Larne has three wins, one draw, and two losses in the same period. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with Cliftonville FC at 26%, a draw at 26%, and Larne at 48%.
The expected goals are closely matched, with Cliftonville FC at 1.45 and Larne at 1.41, indicating a potentially tight contest. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 1-2 in favor of Larne, with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood that both teams will score. The head-to-head record favors Larne, who have won six of the last ten encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cliftonville FC and Larne expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Cliftonville FC and Larne attack and defence ratings
Cliftonville FC
Larne
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cliftonville FC vs Larne markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 49.2% | 2.03 | -4.6% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cliftonville FC | 24.7% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Larne | 49.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 64.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Cliftonville FC vs Larne stats
Cliftonville FC and Larne recent form
| Cliftonville FC |
WWLLLL |
| Larne |
WDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cliftonville FC and Larne season so far
Cliftonville FC record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Larne record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cliftonville FC vs Larne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Larne | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Larne | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Larne | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Cliftonville FC | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-19 | Cliftonville FC | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-14 | Larne | Cliftonville FC | League Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-10 | Larne | Cliftonville FC | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-01 | Larne | Cliftonville FC | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-27 | Cliftonville FC | Larne | Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2024-07-05 | Larne | Cliftonville FC | Charity Shield | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cliftonville FC vs Larne odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.4%, draw 25.7%, away 53.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.43 | 3.48 | 1.69 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.70 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 4.80 | 3.50 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.40 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.40 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| Marathonbet | 4.33 | 3.48 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | 5.03 | 3.71 | 1.72 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .