Linfield
vs
Coleraine FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Coleraine FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Coleraine FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Linfield vs Coleraine FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Linfield vs Coleraine FC
| Probability | Linfield | Draw | Coleraine FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.6% | 28.5% | 35.9% |
| Market | 33.3% | 28.1% | 38.6% |
| Final | 33.8% | 28.2% | 37.9% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +0.1% | -0.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.6% per unit staked (our 37.9% × 2.41 − 1).
Linfield vs Coleraine FC match preview
Linfield faces Coleraine FC in a closely contested match, with both teams holding a 36% probability of winning according to our model. The likelihood of a draw stands at 29%. The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.33, suggesting a balanced matchup. The most probable scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Coleraine FC, with a 8% likelihood.
Recent form shows Linfield with a mixed record of D-W-W-D-W-W, while Coleraine FC has been more consistent, recording D-W-W-W-W-L. Both teams have a 55% chance of scoring, and there is a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. The head-to-head record in the last 10 encounters indicates a competitive rivalry, with Linfield securing 3 wins, Coleraine FC 4 wins, and 3 matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Linfield and Coleraine FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Linfield and Coleraine FC attack and defence ratings
Linfield
Coleraine FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Linfield vs Coleraine FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coleraine FC | 37.9% | 2.64 | -0.7% | 2.41 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 33.8% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Coleraine FC | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Coleraine FC win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 64.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 0-0 | 8.2% |
Linfield vs Coleraine FC stats
Linfield and Coleraine FC recent form
| Linfield |
DWWDWW |
| Coleraine FC |
DWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Linfield and Coleraine FC season so far
Linfield record
- They have won 10 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coleraine FC record
- They have won 11 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Linfield vs Coleraine FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Coleraine FC | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Linfield | Coleraine FC | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2025-12-30 | Coleraine FC | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Linfield | Coleraine FC | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Coleraine FC | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-26 | Coleraine FC | Linfield | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Linfield | Coleraine FC | Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-14 | Linfield | Coleraine FC | Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Coleraine FC | Linfield | Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2024-04-16 | Linfield | Coleraine FC | Premiership | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Linfield vs Coleraine FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.3%, draw 28.1%, away 38.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.33 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.37 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.82 | 3.43 | 2.41 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .