Linfield
vs
Dungannon Swifts
Garuda Lions Prediction: Linfield
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.72.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Linfield is the favourite, not a value bet.
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts
| Probability | Linfield | Draw | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.5% | 23.8% | 12.8% |
| Market | 61.3% | 21.7% | 17.0% |
| Final | 61.8% | 22.2% | 16.0% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.5% | -1.1% |
Why Linfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (our 61.8% × 1.53 − 1).
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts match preview
Linfield enters this match against Dungannon Swifts with a strong probability of winning at 64%, reflecting their recent form of five consecutive victories. The expected goals for Linfield stand at 1.86, while Dungannon Swifts are projected at just 0.72, indicating a significant disparity in offensive capabilities. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a probability of 13%.
In contrast, Dungannon Swifts have struggled recently, with a record of one draw and five losses in their last six matches. Historically, Linfield has dominated this fixture, winning nine of the last ten encounters, with Dungannon Swifts yet to secure a victory. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are at 47% and 44%, respectively, suggesting a potential for a low-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts attack and defence ratings
Linfield
Dungannon Swifts
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 61.8% | 1.62 | +0.5% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Linfield win | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 61.8% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Dungannon Swifts | 16.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.2% |
| No | 55.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Linfield win | 38.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 36.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.2% |
| 2-0 | 13.1% | |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts stats
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts recent form
| Linfield |
WWDWWW |
| Dungannon Swifts |
LDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts season so far
Linfield record
- They have won 9 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dungannon Swifts record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Dungannon Swifts | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Linfield | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Dungannon Swifts | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-17 | Dungannon Swifts | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Linfield | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 6-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Linfield | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Linfield | Dungannon Swifts | Charity Shield | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Linfield | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-24 | Dungannon Swifts | Linfield | Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2024-12-17 | Dungannon Swifts | Linfield | Premiership | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.3%, draw 21.7%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.15 | 5.57 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.15 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.15 | 5.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.54 | 5.31 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.00 |