Ballymena United
vs
Bangor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ballymena United
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ballymena United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ballymena United vs Bangor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ballymena United vs Bangor
| Probability | Ballymena United | Draw | Bangor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.7% | 22.5% | 15.8% |
| Market | 57.2% | 23.5% | 19.3% |
| Final | 58.3% | 23.3% | 18.4% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.2% | -0.9% |
Why Ballymena United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 58.3% × 1.65 − 1).
Ballymena United vs Bangor match preview
Ballymena United enters this match with a 61% probability of winning, reflecting their recent form of W-L-W-W-D-D. The team has an expected goals figure of 2.00, suggesting a strong offensive performance. In contrast, Bangor has struggled recently with a record of D-L-L-L-W-L, leading to a 16% chance of victory and an expected goals tally of just 0.92.
In their last six encounters, Ballymena United has secured 2 wins, while Bangor has managed only 1 win, with 3 matches ending in draws. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Ballymena United, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ballymena United and Bangor expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Ballymena United and Bangor attack and defence ratings
Ballymena United
Bangor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ballymena United vs Bangor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballymena United | 58.3% | 1.71 | +1.1% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ballymena United win | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballymena United | 58.3% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Bangor | 18.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% |
| No | 45.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballymena United win | 38.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 38.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Ballymena United vs Bangor stats
Ballymena United and Bangor recent form
| Ballymena United |
WLWWDD |
| Bangor |
LDLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ballymena United and Bangor season so far
Ballymena United record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Bangor record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Ballymena United vs Bangor head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Bangor | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Ballymena United | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Bangor | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Bangor | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-23 | Ballymena United | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2024-07-20 | Ballymena United | Bangor | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ballymena United vs Bangor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.2%, draw 23.5%, away 19.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 3.94 | 4.84 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.85 | 4.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 3.94 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.82 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.80 |