Bangor
vs
Larne
Garuda Lions Prediction: Larne
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Larne is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bangor vs Larne overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bangor vs Larne
| Probability | Bangor | Draw | Larne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.7% | 24.0% | 57.3% |
| Market | 12.0% | 18.6% | 69.4% |
| Final | 13.7% | 19.9% | 66.4% |
| Edge | +1.7% | +1.3% | -3.0% |
Why Larne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.4% per unit staked (our 66.4% × 1.35 − 1).
Bangor vs Larne match preview
Bangor faces Larne in the Northern Ireland Premiership with a significant disparity in expected performance. Bangor has a 12% chance of winning, while Larne stands at 69%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with Bangor expected to score 1.03 goals and Larne 1.93. Recent form shows Bangor struggling with a record of D-L-L-L-W-L, while Larne has been more successful with L-L-W-W-W-W.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model suggests a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Larne has dominated their encounters with Bangor, winning 7 out of the last 8 matches, which further underscores the challenges Bangor faces in this upcoming fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bangor and Larne expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Bangor and Larne attack and defence ratings
Bangor
Larne
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bangor vs Larne markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 66.4% | 1.51 | -3.0% | 1.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.3% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bangor | 13.7% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Larne | 66.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.7% |
Bangor vs Larne stats
Bangor and Larne recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bangor and Larne season so far
Bangor record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Larne record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bangor vs Larne head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Larne | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Larne | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Larne | Bangor | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Larne | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Bangor | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-07 | Bangor | Larne | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2022-08-06 | Bangor | Larne | Friendlies Clubs | 0-3 |
| 2022-01-08 | Bangor | Larne | Irish Cup | 0-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bangor vs Larne odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.0%, draw 18.6%, away 69.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.00 | 4.85 | 1.29 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 4.50 | 1.30 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.10 | 1.25 |
| Betano | 7.50 | 4.65 | 1.35 |
| Betfair | 8.50 | 5.00 | 1.29 |
| Dafabet | 8.00 | 5.20 | 1.33 |
| Marathonbet | 7.60 | 4.85 | 1.28 |
| Pinnacle | 7.14 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.80 | 1.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .