Larne
vs
Linfield
Garuda Lions Prediction: Larne
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Larne vs Linfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Larne vs Linfield
| Probability | Larne | Draw | Linfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.2% | 29.1% | 35.7% |
| Market | 49.1% | 27.7% | 23.3% |
| Final | 45.6% | 28.0% | 26.4% |
| Edge | -13.9% | +1.5% | +12.4% |
Why Larne
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Larne vs Linfield match preview
Larne is set to face Linfield in the Northern Ireland Premiership, with the home side holding a 46% probability of winning according to our model. Recent form shows Larne on a six-match winning streak, while Linfield has also been strong, with five wins and a draw in their last six matches. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0 in favor of Larne, occurring at a 12% probability.
In terms of expected goals, Larne is projected to score 1.16 while Linfield is at 1.02. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 37%, and the chance of both teams scoring stands at 45%. Historically, in their last four encounters, Larne has secured one win, while the other three matches ended in draws, with Linfield yet to claim a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Larne and Linfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Larne and Linfield attack and defence ratings
Larne
Linfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Larne vs Linfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 45.6% | 2.19 | -13.9% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 45.6% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Linfield | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 64.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | |
| 0-1 | 8.6% |
Larne vs Linfield stats
Larne and Linfield recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Larne and Linfield season so far
Larne record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Linfield record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Larne vs Linfield head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Linfield | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-24 | Larne | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Linfield | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Larne | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Larne vs Linfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 27.3%, away 23.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.30 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .