Portadown
vs
Ballymena United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ballymena United
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ballymena United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Portadown vs Ballymena United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portadown vs Ballymena United
| Probability | Portadown | Draw | Ballymena United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.0% | 29.7% | 42.3% |
| Market | 28.4% | 24.9% | 46.7% |
| Final | 28.3% | 26.1% | 45.6% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +1.2% | -1.1% |
Why Ballymena United
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (our 45.6% × 2.01 − 1).
Portadown vs Ballymena United match preview
Portadown faces Ballymena United in the Northern Ireland Premiership, with the match expected to be competitive. Portadown has a 26% chance of winning, while Ballymena United is favored with a 46% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 54% likelihood for both teams to find the net and an expected goals tally of 1.10 for Portadown and 1.54 for Ballymena United.
In terms of recent form, Portadown has recorded two losses followed by a win, a draw, and another loss, indicating some inconsistency. Conversely, Ballymena United has performed better, with three wins in their last five matches, alongside two draws. Historically, the last ten encounters show Portadown with five wins, while Ballymena United has secured four victories. The confidence grade for this match is rated C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portadown and Ballymena United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Portadown and Ballymena United attack and defence ratings
Portadown
Ballymena United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portadown vs Ballymena United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballymena United | 45.6% | 2.19 | -1.1% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portadown | 28.3% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Ballymena United | 45.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballymena United win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | |
| 0-0 | 10.2% |
Portadown vs Ballymena United stats
Portadown and Ballymena United recent form
| Portadown |
LLWDWL |
| Ballymena United |
LWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portadown and Ballymena United season so far
Portadown record
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ballymena United record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Portadown vs Ballymena United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Ballymena United | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Ballymena United | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Ballymena United | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Portadown | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-19 | Portadown | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-26 | Portadown | Ballymena United | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Ballymena United | Portadown | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-01 | Ballymena United | Portadown | Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2024-09-28 | Portadown | Ballymena United | Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2023-07-25 | Portadown | Ballymena United | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portadown vs Ballymena United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 24.9%, away 46.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.22 | 3.64 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.13 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.01 |
| Marathonbet | 3.15 | 3.64 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 3.30 | 4.01 | 1.96 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .