CSM Satu Mare
vs
Metalul Buzău
Garuda Lions Prediction: Metalul Buzău
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău
| Probability | CSM Satu Mare | Draw | Metalul Buzău |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.4% | 33.2% | 41.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.4% | 33.2% | 41.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Metalul Buzău
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău match preview
CSM Satu Mare faces Metalul Buzău in a Liga II matchup on October 17, 2026. According to our model, CSM Satu Mare has a 25% chance of winning, while Metalul Buzău holds a 41% probability of victory, with a 33% likelihood of a draw. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 14% chance. CSM Satu Mare's expected goals stand at 0.84, compared to Metalul Buzău's 1.14.
Recent form indicates CSM Satu Mare has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-L-D-L). In contrast, Metalul Buzău has shown better form, winning three of their last six encounters (W-W-D-L-L-W). The likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 40%, while the probability of over 2.5 goals is at 32%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CSM Satu Mare and Metalul Buzău expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.98
CSM Satu Mare and Metalul Buzău attack and defence ratings
CSM Satu Mare
Metalul Buzău
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Concordia v Viitorul Şelimbăr — match page
- CSM Reşiţa v Cetatea Suceava — match page
- Popești-Leordeni vs CS Afumati — team news & stats
- Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia
- CSA Steaua Bucureşti v Metaloglobus — match page
- Dumbrăviţa vs Bihor Oradea — team news & stats
- Ştefăneşti v CS Dinamo București — match page
Before and after this match
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metalul Buzău | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSM Satu Mare | 25.4% |
| Draw | 33.2% | |
| Metalul Buzău | 41.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.0% |
| No | 60.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Metalul Buzău win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.5% | |
| 0-1 | 14.5% |
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău stats
CSM Satu Mare and Metalul Buzău recent form
| CSM Satu Mare |
LDDLDL |
| Metalul Buzău |
WWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CSM Satu Mare and Metalul Buzău season so far
CSM Satu Mare record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Metalul Buzău record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Metalul Buzău | CSM Satu Mare | Liga II | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.