Metalul Buzău
vs
ASA Targu Mures
Garuda Lions Prediction: Metalul Buzău
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures
| Probability | Metalul Buzău | Draw | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.6% | 24.7% | 20.7% |
| Market | 41.7% | 27.1% | 31.2% |
| Final | 44.9% | 26.5% | 28.6% |
| Edge | +12.9% | -2.4% | -10.5% |
Why Metalul Buzău
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.08.
- The market prices Metalul Buzău below the model: +12.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures match preview
Metalul Buzău faces ASA Targu Mures in a Liga II matchup, with our model giving Metalul Buzău a 45% chance of winning, while ASA Targu Mures has a 29% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Metalul Buzău, with an expected goals tally of 1.86 for them compared to 1.08 for ASA Targu Mures.
In terms of recent form, Metalul Buzău has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while ASA Targu Mures has achieved two wins, two draws, and one loss. The teams have split their last two encounters, each securing one victory. With both teams showing potential for scoring, our model indicates a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures attack and defence ratings
Metalul Buzău
ASA Targu Mures
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Chindia Targoviste vs Concordia — team news & stats
- Metaloglobus vs Popești-Leordeni
- Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Unirea Slobozia — team news & stats
- CS Dinamo București vs CSM Satu Mare
- Gloria Bistriţa vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea — team news & stats
- Cetatea Suceava vs Dumbrăviţa
- CSM Reşiţa vs Slatina
- CS Afumati vs Ştefăneşti — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metalul Buzău | 44.9% | 2.23 | +12.9% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metalul Buzău | 44.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| ASA Targu Mures | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Metalul Buzău win | 32.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures stats
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures recent form
| Metalul Buzău |
WWDLLW |
| ASA Targu Mures |
WDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures season so far
Metalul Buzău record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
ASA Targu Mures record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | ASA Targu Mures | Metalul Buzău | Liga II | 1-4 |
| 2026-02-28 | ASA Targu Mures | Metalul Buzău | Liga II | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Metalul Buzău vs ASA Targu Mures odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.7%, draw 27.1%, away 31.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.26 | 2.93 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.26 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.34 | 2.86 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .