Chindia Targoviste
vs
CSM Satu Mare
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chindia Targoviste
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare
| Probability | Chindia Targoviste | Draw | CSM Satu Mare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.4% | 23.4% | 14.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 62.4% | 23.4% | 14.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Chindia Targoviste
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare match preview
Chindia Targoviste enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 62%, while CSM Satu Mare has a lower chance at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.92 for Chindia Targoviste compared to 0.81 for CSM Satu Mare. Recent form shows Chindia with three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while CSM Satu Mare has struggled, recording four draws and two losses.
Both teams have shown some potential for scoring, with a 51% probability for over 2.5 goals and a nearly even 48% chance for both teams to score. In their last head-to-head encounter, Chindia Targoviste secured a win, reinforcing their current form advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chindia Targoviste and CSM Satu Mare expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Chindia Targoviste and CSM Satu Mare attack and defence ratings
Chindia Targoviste
CSM Satu Mare
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Metalul Buzău v Ştefăneşti — match page
- Unirea Slobozia vs Concordia — team news & stats
- CS Dinamo București v Popești-Leordeni — match page
- Gloria Bistriţa vs Dumbrăviţa
- Cetatea Suceava v Slatina — match page
- FC Politehnica Timisoara vs FC Bacau — team news & stats
- CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti
- Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures
Before and after this match
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chindia Targoviste | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Chindia Targoviste win | 38.3% | 2.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chindia Targoviste | 62.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| CSM Satu Mare | 14.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.5% |
| No | 51.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chindia Targoviste win | 38.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare stats
Chindia Targoviste and CSM Satu Mare recent form
| Chindia Targoviste |
WWWLWL |
| CSM Satu Mare |
DDLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chindia Targoviste and CSM Satu Mare season so far
Chindia Targoviste record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CSM Satu Mare record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-24 | CSM Satu Mare | Chindia Targoviste | Liga II | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.