Inverness CT
vs
Ayr Utd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inverness CT
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd
| Probability | Inverness CT | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 25.3% | 21.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.9% | 25.3% | 21.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Inverness CT
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd match preview
Inverness CT hosts Ayr Utd in a Scotland Championship clash, with Inverness CT holding a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Inverness CT stand at 1.80, while Ayr Utd is projected at 1.09. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability. Recent form shows Inverness CT with a mixed record of D-L-W-W-L-W, while Ayr Utd has struggled, recording L-W-L-D-W-L.
Historically, Inverness CT has performed well against Ayr Utd, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters, with 3 wins for Ayr Utd and 1 draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 55%, and both teams are expected to score 57% of the time. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inverness CT and Ayr Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Inverness CT and Ayr Utd attack and defence ratings
Inverness CT
Ayr Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inverness CT | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inverness CT | 52.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Ayr Utd | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inverness CT win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd stats
Inverness CT and Ayr Utd recent form
| Inverness CT |
DLWWLW |
| Ayr Utd |
LWLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inverness CT and Ayr Utd season so far
Inverness CT record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Ayr Utd | Inverness CT | Scotland Championship | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ayr Utd | Inverness CT | Challenge Cup | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-16 | Inverness CT | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-01-06 | Ayr Utd | Inverness CT | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2023-11-11 | Inverness CT | Ayr Utd | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-08-12 | Ayr Utd | Inverness CT | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-05 | Inverness CT | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-04 | Ayr Utd | Inverness CT | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-11-19 | Inverness CT | Ayr Utd | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2022-10-01 | Ayr Utd | Inverness CT | Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.