Ayr Utd
vs
Raith Rovers
3 – 1 Full time
Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers
| Probability | Ayr Utd | Draw | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.9% | 27.9% | 53.2% |
| Market | 27.0% | 29.3% | 43.7% |
| Final | 25.0% | 28.9% | 46.1% |
| Edge | -2.0% | -0.3% | +2.4% |
Why Raith Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Raith Rovers below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers attack and defence ratings
Ayr Utd
Raith Rovers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers: result vs prediction
Ayr Utd 3 – 1 Raith Rovers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raith Rovers | 46.1% | 2.17 | +2.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 25.0% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Raith Rovers | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 46.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.1% | |
| 0-2 | 11.1% |
Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers stats
Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers recent form
| Ayr Utd |
LWLDWL |
| Raith Rovers |
DWLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers going into this match
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Raith Rovers record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Raith Rovers | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Raith Rovers | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Ayr Utd | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Raith Rovers | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Ayr Utd | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Raith Rovers | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-04 | Ayr Utd | Raith Rovers | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2024-11-01 | Raith Rovers | Ayr Utd | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-08 | Ayr Utd | Raith Rovers | Challenge Cup | 3-2 |
| 2024-08-24 | Ayr Utd | Raith Rovers | Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.0%, draw 29.3%, away 43.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.12 | 2.06 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.15 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.11 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.12 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.62 | 3.33 | 2.13 |
| SBO | 3.25 | 2.94 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .