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Scotland Championship · Full time ·Matchday 15

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park

2 – 0 Full time

Ochilview Park, StenhousemuirReferee: G. Soutar

Stenhousemuir 52%
Draw 27%
Queen's Park 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityStenhousemuirDrawQueen's Park
Model50.7%28.9%20.4%
Market52.3%26.2%21.5%
Final51.9%26.8%21.3%
Edge-0.4%+0.7%-0.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Stenhousemuir

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.85.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Stenhousemuir ↓ / Queen's Park → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 7% 1 13% 13% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park expected goals

Stenhousemuir 1.48
Queen's Park 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.33

Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park attack and defence ratings

Stenhousemuir

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Queen's Park

Attack 0.64 -36%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park: result vs prediction

Stenhousemuir 2 – 0 Queen's Park

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Scotland Championship

Before and after this match

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Stenhousemuir 51.9% 1.93 -0.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.9% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score No 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.7% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.3% 2.03 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Stenhousemuir51.9%
Draw26.8%
Queen's Park21.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%
Both teams to scoreYes45.4%
No54.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.7%
12 (either side)73.2%
X2 (draw or away)48.1%
Handicap -1Stenhousemuir win26.4%
Push (exactly one goal)24.3%
Loss49.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
1-013.2%
0-011.0%

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park stats

Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park recent form

newest first
Stenhousemuir LLLLDL
Queen's Park LLLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park going into this match

league record before kick-off

Stenhousemuir record

  • They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Queen's Park record

  • They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 14 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Stenhousemuir wins 2Draws 5Queen's Park wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-22Queen's ParkStenhousemuirScotland Championship0-2
2021-04-10StenhousemuirQueen's ParkLeague Two1-3
2020-11-28Queen's ParkStenhousemuirLeague Two3-1
2020-03-07StenhousemuirQueen's ParkLeague Two0-0
2020-01-04Queen's ParkStenhousemuirLeague Two2-1
2019-11-02StenhousemuirQueen's ParkLeague Two0-3
2019-08-10Queen's ParkStenhousemuirLeague Two1-1
2017-04-29Queen's ParkStenhousemuirLeague One0-2
2017-02-11StenhousemuirQueen's ParkLeague One0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.3%, draw 26.2%, away 21.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.70 3.45 4.40
Bet365 1.75 3.50 3.80
BetVictor 1.73 3.50 4.40
Betano 1.83 3.50 3.85
Betfair 1.75 3.60 4.40
Dafabet 1.82 3.55 4.20
Marathonbet 1.68 3.45 4.30
Pinnacle 1.76 3.76 4.65
SBO 1.80 3.13 3.67
William Hill 1.75 3.40 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▼ -0.16
X 3.50 ▲ +0.10
2 4.25 ▲ +0.45

13 snapshots recorded, from .