Morton
vs
Stenhousemuir
Garuda Lions Prediction: Morton
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
Morton vs Stenhousemuir overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Morton vs Stenhousemuir
| Probability | Morton | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.5% | 30.6% | 27.9% |
| Market | 35.2% | 28.4% | 36.4% |
| Final | 36.8% | 29.0% | 34.3% |
| Edge | +1.6% | +0.5% | -2.1% |
Why Morton
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.6% per unit staked (our 36.8% × 2.65 − 1).
Morton vs Stenhousemuir match preview
Morton faces Stenhousemuir in the Scotland Championship with both teams looking to improve their recent performances. Morton's recent form shows two wins followed by four losses, while Stenhousemuir has struggled with one win in their last five matches. According to our model, Morton has a 36% chance of winning, with a 32% probability of a draw and a 31% chance for Stenhousemuir. The expected goals for Morton stand at 1.11, while Stenhousemuir is slightly behind at 1.01.
In their last two encounters, Stenhousemuir has secured two victories against Morton, indicating a potential psychological edge. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Morton, occurring with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 44% chance that both teams will score, while the probability of over 2.5 goals is at 36%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Morton and Stenhousemuir expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Morton and Stenhousemuir attack and defence ratings
Morton
Stenhousemuir
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Morton vs Stenhousemuir markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 36.8% | 2.72 | +1.6% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 36.8% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Stenhousemuir | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.6% |
| No | 52.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Morton win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.2% |
Morton vs Stenhousemuir stats
Morton and Stenhousemuir recent form
| Morton |
WWWLLL |
| Stenhousemuir |
LLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Morton and Stenhousemuir season so far
Morton record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Stenhousemuir record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Morton vs Stenhousemuir head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Stenhousemuir | Morton | Scotland Championship | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Stenhousemuir | Morton | Scotland FA Cup | 4-0 |
| 2025-07-15 | Morton | Stenhousemuir | League Cup | 3-0 |
| 2022-06-28 | Stenhousemuir | Morton | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2018-07-21 | Morton | Stenhousemuir | League Cup | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Morton vs Stenhousemuir odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 28.4%, away 36.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.31 | 2.65 |
| SBO | 2.48 | 2.91 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .