Arbroath
vs
Ayr Utd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ayr Utd
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.71.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arbroath vs Ayr Utd
| Probability | Arbroath | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.0% | 29.2% | 53.8% |
| Market | 31.8% | 29.5% | 38.7% |
| Final | 28.1% | 29.4% | 42.5% |
| Edge | -3.7% | -0.1% | +3.8% |
Why Ayr Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ayr Utd below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.7% per unit staked (our 42.5% × 2.44 − 1).
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd match preview
In the upcoming Championship clash, Arbroath hosts Ayr Utd with the model indicating a 23% chance of an Arbroath victory, while Ayr Utd holds a 41% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-1 in favor of Ayr Utd, with expected goals of 0.69 for Arbroath and 1.01 for Ayr Utd.
Recent form shows Arbroath struggling with four losses in their last five matches, while Ayr Utd has recorded two wins and a draw in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Ayr Utd, who have won twice and drawn three times in their last five encounters against Arbroath. The model also suggests a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arbroath and Ayr Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.16
Arbroath and Ayr Utd attack and defence ratings
Arbroath
Ayr Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 42.5% | 2.35 | +3.8% | 2.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 28.1% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Ayr Utd | 42.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.1% |
| No | 59.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 46.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.6% |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd stats
Arbroath and Ayr Utd recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arbroath and Ayr Utd season so far
Arbroath record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 13 matches.
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ayr Utd | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Ayr Utd | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Arbroath | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Ayr Utd | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Arbroath | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Ayr Utd | Arbroath | League Cup | 4-0 |
| 2024-04-13 | Ayr Utd | Arbroath | Championship | 5-0 |
| 2024-01-23 | Ayr Utd | Arbroath | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-01-13 | Arbroath | Ayr Utd | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-02 | Arbroath | Ayr Utd | Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 29.5%, away 38.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.04 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.13 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.10 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.41 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.04 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 3.03 | 3.13 | 2.44 |
| SBO | 2.68 | 2.90 | 2.21 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .