Garuda Lions
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Scotland Championship · ·Matchday 14

Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline

Garuda Lions Prediction: Dunfermline

0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dunfermline is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Dunfermline

Referee: C. Scott

Raith Rovers 34%
Draw 31%
Dunfermline 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Dunfermline wins
35%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
85%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
41%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
11% of simulated outcomes

Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRaith RoversDrawDunfermline
Model36.7%33.5%29.8%
Market33.6%29.7%36.8%
Final34.3%30.6%35.0%
Edge+0.8%+1.0%-1.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 35.0% × 2.63 − 1).

Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline match preview

Raith Rovers face Dunfermline in a competitive Scotland Championship matchup. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Raith Rovers at 34%, a draw at 31%, and Dunfermline slightly ahead at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Raith Rovers have shown mixed recent form with two wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Dunfermline remains strong with three wins and three draws.

In terms of expected goals, Raith Rovers are projected to score 1.06, while Dunfermline is expected to net 0.93. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 32%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 41%. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Raith Rovers have secured 4 wins, whereas Dunfermline has claimed 6 victories.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Raith Rovers ↓ / Dunfermline → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 11% 1 13% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 60%
3+ goals 32%
No goals 15%

Raith Rovers and Dunfermline expected goals

Raith Rovers 1.06
Dunfermline 0.93

Total expected goals: 1.99

Raith Rovers and Dunfermline attack and defence ratings

Raith Rovers

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Dunfermline

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Scotland Championship

Before and after this match

Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dunfermline 35.0% 2.86 -1.7% 2.63
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.9% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score No 59.1% 1.69 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.4% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.2% 1.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Raith Rovers34.3%
Draw30.6%
Dunfermline35.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.1%
Under 2.567.9%
Both teams to scoreYes40.9%
No59.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.0%
12 (either side)69.4%
X2 (draw or away)65.7%
Handicap -1Dunfermline win11.1%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss70.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-015.0%
1-114.8%
1-013.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline stats

Raith Rovers and Dunfermline recent form

newest first
Raith Rovers WLDWWL
Dunfermline WWWDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Raith Rovers and Dunfermline season so far

league record

Raith Rovers record

  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Dunfermline record

  • They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Raith Rovers wins 0Draws 6Dunfermline wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-28DunfermlineRaith RoversScotland Championship1-0
2026-03-14DunfermlineRaith RoversScotland Championship3-0
2025-12-27Raith RoversDunfermlineScotland Championship1-2
2025-10-17DunfermlineRaith RoversScotland Championship2-0
2025-08-22Raith RoversDunfermlineScotland Championship2-0
2025-03-14Raith RoversDunfermlineChampionship2-0
2025-02-01DunfermlineRaith RoversChampionship3-1
2024-12-14Raith RoversDunfermlineChampionship2-0
2024-09-13DunfermlineRaith RoversChampionship2-0
2024-03-09Raith RoversDunfermlineChampionship2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 29.7%, away 36.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.71 2.97 2.42
Bet365 2.70 3.10 2.35
BetVictor 2.75 3.10 2.45
Betano 2.62 3.05 2.62
Betfair 2.63 3.10 2.63
Dafabet 2.80 3.20 2.50
Marathonbet 2.71 2.97 2.42
Pinnacle 3.00 3.08 2.60
SBO 2.61 2.90 2.36
William Hill 2.90 2.90 2.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.71 ▲ +0.04
X 3.06 ▲ +0.06
2 2.48 ▼ -0.07

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Dunfermline Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
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