Dunfermline
vs
Inverness CT
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dunfermline
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dunfermline is the favourite, not a value bet.
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dunfermline vs Inverness CT
| Probability | Dunfermline | Draw | Inverness CT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.8% | 37.5% | 31.7% |
| Market | 42.2% | 27.8% | 29.9% |
| Final | 39.4% | 30.2% | 30.4% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +2.4% | +0.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.3% per unit staked (our 39.4% × 2.20 − 1).
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT match preview
Dunfermline faces Inverness CT in a closely matched encounter, with Dunfermline holding a 39% probability of winning, while both a draw and an Inverness CT victory are at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Dunfermline, with a 14% likelihood. Expected goals for Dunfermline stand at 0.81, slightly trailing Inverness CT's 0.83.
In terms of recent form, Dunfermline has recorded two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while Inverness CT has achieved four wins and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record shows that in their last encounter, there were no wins for either team, resulting in one draw. Both teams to score has a probability of 32%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 23%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dunfermline and Inverness CT expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.63
Dunfermline and Inverness CT attack and defence ratings
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 39.4% | 2.54 | -2.9% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 39.4% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Inverness CT | 30.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.5% |
| No | 67.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win | 10.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 69.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.8% |
| 0-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 14.5% |
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT stats
Dunfermline and Inverness CT recent form
| Dunfermline |
WDDDWW |
| Inverness CT |
WWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dunfermline and Inverness CT season so far
Dunfermline record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inverness CT record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Inverness CT | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.2%, draw 27.8%, away 29.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.28 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.28 | 2.95 |