Stenhousemuir
vs
Dunfermline
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dunfermline
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dunfermline is the favourite, not a value bet.
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline
| Probability | Stenhousemuir | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 39.3% | 28.1% |
| Market | 25.4% | 28.8% | 45.8% |
| Final | 27.2% | 31.4% | 41.3% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +2.6% | -4.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.8% per unit staked (our 41.3% × 2.06 − 1).
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline match preview
Stenhousemuir faces Dunfermline in the Scotland Championship with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Stenhousemuir has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Dunfermline is on a positive streak with four wins and two draws. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are 27% for Stenhousemuir, 31% for a draw, and 41% for Dunfermline. The expected goals for Stenhousemuir is 0.78, slightly higher than Dunfermline's 0.71.
Historically, Dunfermline has dominated their recent encounters, winning all six of the last head-to-head matches against Stenhousemuir. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with a 15% probability. Additionally, there is a 19% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance for both teams to score in this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stenhousemuir and Dunfermline expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.49
Stenhousemuir and Dunfermline attack and defence ratings
Stenhousemuir
Dunfermline
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 41.3% | 2.42 | -4.4% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stenhousemuir | 27.2% |
| Draw | 31.4% | |
| Dunfermline | 41.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 81.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.8% |
| No | 71.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win | 8.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 71.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.7% |
| 1-0 | 16.4% | |
| 0-1 | 14.7% |
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline stats
Stenhousemuir and Dunfermline recent form
| Stenhousemuir |
LDLWWW |
| Dunfermline |
WDDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stenhousemuir and Dunfermline season so far
Stenhousemuir record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
Dunfermline record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Dunfermline | Stenhousemuir | Scotland FA Cup | 3-0 |
| 2021-07-24 | Dunfermline | Stenhousemuir | League Cup | 4-1 |
| 2016-03-05 | Dunfermline | Stenhousemuir | League One | 5-0 |
| 2016-02-06 | Stenhousemuir | Dunfermline | League One | 0-3 |
| 2015-12-19 | Dunfermline | Stenhousemuir | League One | 1-0 |
| 2015-09-19 | Stenhousemuir | Dunfermline | League One | 0-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.4%, draw 28.8%, away 45.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.52 | 3.18 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.13 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.98 |
| Marathonbet | 3.44 | 3.18 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.78 | 3.15 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .