Livingston
vs
Ayr Utd
1 – 2 Full time
| 8′ | O. Stirton | ||
| 10′ | C. Palmer | ||
| 19′ | R. Muirhead | ||
| 22′ | R. Taylor | ||
| 22′ | L. McBeth | ||
| 36′ | L. McBeth | ||
| 45′ | J. Doherty | ||
| 46′ | T. SinclairG. Carey | ||
| 51′ | E. Danso | ||
| 62′ | C. PalmerB. Anderson | ||
| 70′ | O. StirtonK. Shanks | ||
| 70′ | R. LyonN. McAllister | ||
| 72′ | S. McMann | ||
| 76′ | E. DansoS. May | ||
| 78′ | K. Shanks | ||
| 80′ | S. PittmanL. Polworth | ||
| 81′ | B. van HoevenA. Denholm |
Livingston vs Ayr Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Livingston vs Ayr Utd
| Probability | Livingston | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 26.6% | 16.9% |
| Market | 58.9% | 22.8% | 18.3% |
| Final | 58.3% | 23.8% | 17.9% |
| Edge | -2.5% | +3.8% | -1.3% |
Why Livingston
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Livingston and Ayr Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Livingston and Ayr Utd attack and defence ratings
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Livingston vs Ayr Utd: result vs prediction
Livingston 1 – 2 Ayr Utd
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Livingston vs Ayr Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livingston | 58.3% | 1.72 | -2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livingston | 58.3% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Ayr Utd | 17.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Livingston win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | |
| 2-0 | 11.7% |
Livingston vs Ayr Utd stats
Livingston and Ayr Utd recent form
| Livingston |
WDWLLW |
| Ayr Utd |
LWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Livingston and Ayr Utd going into this match
Livingston record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Livingston vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | Livingston | Ayr Utd | Championship | 5-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Ayr Utd | Livingston | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-21 | Livingston | Ayr Utd | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Ayr Utd | Livingston | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-19 | Livingston | Ayr Utd | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2020-11-28 | Livingston | Ayr Utd | League Cup | 4-0 |
| 2019-07-16 | Livingston | Ayr Utd | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2012-04-14 | Livingston | Ayr Utd | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2012-03-06 | Livingston | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2012-02-25 | Ayr Utd | Livingston | Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Livingston vs Ayr Utd odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.9%, draw 22.8%, away 18.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.38 | 5.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 3.80 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 4.22 | 5.49 |
| SBO | 1.50 | 3.64 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .