Ayr Utd
vs
Stenhousemuir
0 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | S. Young | ||
| 30′ | L. Grant | ||
| 43′ | M. Gillies | ||
| 46′ | L. GrantC. Penman | ||
| 50′ | R. Taylor | ||
| 51′ | A. Shinnie | ||
| 58′ | L. O'DonnellL. Hodgkiss | ||
| 58′ | M. GilliesF. Robson | ||
| 60′ | J. LandersO. Stirton | ||
| 60′ | R. TaylorE. Walker | ||
| 68′ | A. ShinnieH. Kargbo | ||
| 78′ | R. LyonK. Shanks | ||
| 78′ | G. StevensonE. O'Reilly | ||
| 86′ | D. WatretN. McAllister | ||
| 86′ | S. McMannL. Dick | ||
| 87′ | K. Shanks | ||
| 89′ | N. McAllister |
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir
| Probability | Ayr Utd | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.2% | 29.6% | 55.2% |
| Market | 41.3% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Final | 34.8% | 29.4% | 35.8% |
| Edge | -26.1% | +0.3% | +25.8% |
Why Stenhousemuir
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stenhousemuir below the model: +25.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ayr Utd and Stenhousemuir expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.04
Ayr Utd and Stenhousemuir attack and defence ratings
Ayr Utd
Stenhousemuir
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir: result vs prediction
Ayr Utd 0 – 1 Stenhousemuir
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stenhousemuir | 35.8% | 2.79 | +25.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 34.8% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Stenhousemuir | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.2% |
| No | 63.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stenhousemuir win | 28.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.7% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 17.3% |
| 0-0 | 14.2% | |
| 0-2 | 13.0% |
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir stats
Ayr Utd and Stenhousemuir recent form
| Ayr Utd |
WLLDLD |
| Stenhousemuir |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ayr Utd and Stenhousemuir going into this match
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Stenhousemuir record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-23 | Stenhousemuir | Ayr Utd | League Cup | 1-4 |
| 2023-07-18 | Ayr Utd | Stenhousemuir | League Cup | 1-0 |
| 2018-07-24 | Ayr Utd | Stenhousemuir | League Cup | 5-0 |
| 2016-04-16 | Stenhousemuir | Ayr Utd | League One | 0-4 |
| 2016-03-08 | Ayr Utd | Stenhousemuir | League One | 4-1 |
| 2015-10-24 | Stenhousemuir | Ayr Utd | League One | 0-1 |
| 2015-09-01 | Ayr Utd | Stenhousemuir | League One | 5-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 29.3%, away 29.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.02 | 3.12 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.02 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.29 | 3.17 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .