Stenhousemuir
vs
Arbroath
1 – 0 Full time
| 34′ | L. O'Donnell | ||
| 46′ | J. BonnarA. Winter | ||
| 62′ | S. Mackie | ||
| 62′ | L. HodgkissG. Stevenson | ||
| 62′ | L. O'DonnellE. O'Reilly | ||
| 63′ | R. MolotnikovR. Dow | ||
| 69′ | A. ShinnieH. Kargbo | ||
| 70′ | F. RobsonM. Gillies | ||
| 72′ | B. Paterson | ||
| 78′ | S. Bright | ||
| 81′ | M. McKennaC. Daly | ||
| 83′ | R. MeechanC. Penman | ||
| 86′ | C. Penman | ||
| 90′ | M. Gillies |
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath
| Probability | Stenhousemuir | Draw | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.8% | 23.3% | 7.9% |
| Market | 48.0% | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Final | 53.2% | 27.5% | 19.3% |
| Edge | +20.8% | -5.6% | -15.2% |
Why Stenhousemuir
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stenhousemuir below the model: +20.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath attack and defence ratings
Stenhousemuir
Arbroath
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath: result vs prediction
Stenhousemuir 1 – 0 Arbroath
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stenhousemuir | 53.2% | 1.88 | +20.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Stenhousemuir win | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stenhousemuir | 53.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Arbroath | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.4% |
| No | 69.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stenhousemuir win | 41.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 31.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.7% |
| 2-0 | 17.1% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath stats
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath recent form
| Stenhousemuir |
WWWWWD |
| Arbroath |
LDWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath going into this match
Stenhousemuir record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Arbroath record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | League One | 4-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | League One | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | League One | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-03 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | League One | 2-1 |
| 2019-03-09 | Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | League One | 0-2 |
| 2019-01-12 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | League One | 1-4 |
| 2018-12-01 | Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | League One | 5-2 |
| 2018-09-22 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | League One | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.0%, draw 28.9%, away 23.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.05 | 3.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.15 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.05 | 3.86 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.24 | 4.19 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 2.93 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .