Morton
vs
Dunfermline
0 – 1 Full time
| 58′ | Z. RobinsonC. Sandilands | ||
| 62′ | D. Lobban | ||
| 64′ | M. O'HalloranM. Garrity | ||
| 64′ | K. RobertsonG. Savoury | ||
| 70′ | R. MacLeodO. Shaw | ||
| 70′ | R. FraserL. Robinson | ||
| 75′ | I. WilsonD. Borso | ||
| 75′ | E. BrophyS. Bashir | ||
| 77′ | A. AmadeZ. Rudden | ||
| 78′ | J. CooperK. Bray | ||
| 83′ | A. TodC. Kane | ||
| 90′ | C. Okike |
Morton vs Dunfermline overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Morton vs Dunfermline
| Probability | Morton | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.7% | 31.7% | 47.6% |
| Market | 21.0% | 24.6% | 54.5% |
| Final | 20.9% | 26.3% | 52.8% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +7.2% | -6.9% |
Why Dunfermline
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Morton and Dunfermline expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Morton and Dunfermline attack and defence ratings
Morton
Dunfermline
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Morton vs Dunfermline: result vs prediction
Morton 0 – 1 Dunfermline
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Morton vs Dunfermline markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 52.8% | 1.90 | -6.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 20.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Dunfermline | 52.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.3% |
| No | 60.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.9% |
Morton vs Dunfermline stats
Morton and Dunfermline recent form
| Morton |
LLDLLL |
| Dunfermline |
WDWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Morton and Dunfermline going into this match
Morton record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
Dunfermline record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Morton vs Dunfermline head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Dunfermline | Morton | Scotland Championship | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Morton | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Dunfermline | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Morton | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-02 | Morton | Dunfermline | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Dunfermline | Morton | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-21 | Morton | Dunfermline | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Dunfermline | Morton | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-23 | Morton | Dunfermline | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-03 | Dunfermline | Morton | Championship | 0-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Morton vs Dunfermline odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.0%, draw 24.6%, away 54.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.39 | 3.68 | 1.65 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.60 |
| BetVictor | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.35 | 3.70 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| Marathonbet | 4.30 | 3.68 | 1.63 |
| Pinnacle | 4.58 | 4.06 | 1.69 |
| SBO | 3.65 | 3.17 | 1.73 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.75 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .