Ayr Utd
vs
Dunfermline
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dunfermline
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline
| Probability | Ayr Utd | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 37.0% | 34.2% |
| Market | 28.6% | 28.9% | 42.5% |
| Final | 28.6% | 30.9% | 40.4% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +8.0% | -8.3% |
Why Dunfermline
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline match preview
Ayr Utd faces Dunfermline in the Scotland Championship, with kickoff set for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a closely contested match, assigning probabilities of 30% for Ayr Utd to win, 31% for a draw, and 39% for a Dunfermline victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 15% probability. Expected goals suggest a slight edge for Dunfermline, with Ayr Utd at 0.79 and Dunfermline at 0.88.
Recent form shows Ayr Utd with a mixed record of W-L-W-L-L-D, while Dunfermline has been more consistent with W-W-D-W-L-D. In their last five encounters, Ayr Utd has secured 2 wins, while Dunfermline has also won 2 matches, alongside 1 draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the blended probabilities with market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.67
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline attack and defence ratings
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 40.4% | 2.47 | -8.3% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 28.6% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Dunfermline | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.3% |
| No | 66.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win | 12.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 65.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.1% |
| 0-1 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline stats
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline recent form
| Ayr Utd |
WLWLLD |
| Dunfermline |
WWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline season so far
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dunfermline record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 0-3 |
| 2025-12-20 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-31 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-01-14 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-23 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-03 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Championship | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 28.9%, away 42.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 3.12 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.17 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.12 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.38 | 3.24 | 2.17 |
| SBO | 2.87 | 2.96 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .