Ayr Utd
vs
Dunfermline
1 – 1 Full time
| 39′ | A. Amade | ||
| 54′ | J. Cooper | ||
| 58′ | K. Holt | ||
| 58′ | O. Adams | ||
| 62′ | R. Lyon | ||
| 63′ | O. AdamsO. Shaw | ||
| 66′ | N. McAllisterB. Summers | ||
| 77′ | O. StirtonJ. Landers | ||
| 78′ | R. LyonM. Rus | ||
| 78′ | E. WalkerJ. Murphy | ||
| 78′ | A. TodC. Morrison | ||
| 78′ | A. OyirwothK. Bray | ||
| 82′ | O. Whyte | ||
| 83′ | O. Shaw | ||
| 90′ | D. Lobban |
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline
| Probability | Ayr Utd | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 37.0% | 34.2% |
| Market | 29.3% | 28.5% | 42.1% |
| Final | 29.2% | 30.6% | 40.2% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +2.1% | -2.0% |
Why Dunfermline
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.67
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline attack and defence ratings
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline: result vs prediction
Ayr Utd 1 – 1 Dunfermline
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 40.2% | 2.49 | -2.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 29.2% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Dunfermline | 40.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.3% |
| No | 66.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win | 12.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 65.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.1% |
| 0-1 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline stats
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline recent form
| Ayr Utd |
WLWLLD |
| Dunfermline |
WWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ayr Utd and Dunfermline going into this match
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dunfermline record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 0-3 |
| 2025-12-20 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-31 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-01-14 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-23 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Dunfermline | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-03 | Ayr Utd | Dunfermline | Championship | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 28.5%, away 42.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 3.12 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.20 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.21 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.12 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.27 | 3.30 | 2.27 |
| SBO | 2.91 | 3.01 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .