Arbroath
vs
Morton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arbroath
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Arbroath vs Morton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arbroath vs Morton
| Probability | Arbroath | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.7% | 32.7% | 22.5% |
| Market | 51.5% | 27.5% | 21.0% |
| Final | 49.8% | 28.8% | 21.4% |
| Edge | -6.8% | +5.3% | +1.5% |
Why Arbroath
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Arbroath vs Morton match preview
Arbroath will host Morton in the Scotland Championship on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 45% probability of an Arbroath victory, while a draw is at 33% and Morton stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Arbroath, with an expected goals tally of 1.20 for Arbroath and 0.77 for Morton.
In terms of recent form, Arbroath has recorded one win, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Morton is struggling with five consecutive losses followed by a draw. The head-to-head record shows Arbroath with one win, two draws, and two losses against Morton in their last five encounters. The model suggests a moderate confidence grade of C for this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arbroath and Morton expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
Arbroath and Morton attack and defence ratings
Arbroath
Morton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arbroath vs Morton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 49.8% | 2.01 | -6.8% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 49.8% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Morton | 21.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.9% |
| No | 61.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arbroath win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 55.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.4% |
| 0-0 | 15.2% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Arbroath vs Morton stats
Arbroath and Morton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arbroath and Morton season so far
Arbroath record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Morton record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Arbroath vs Morton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Morton | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Morton | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Arbroath | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Morton | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Arbroath | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-20 | Arbroath | Morton | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-01-27 | Morton | Arbroath | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2023-12-09 | Arbroath | Morton | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-26 | Morton | Arbroath | Championship | 0-3 |
| 2023-03-17 | Arbroath | Morton | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arbroath vs Morton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.5%, draw 27.5%, away 21.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.45 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.41 | 4.67 |
| SBO | 1.77 | 3.02 | 3.68 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .