Garuda Lions
Today
Scotland Championship · Full time ·Matchday 11

Inverness CT vs Arbroath

2 – 0 Full time

39′C. MacLeod
42′A. Bavidge
45′T. BeadlingC. Dewar
67′M. McKenna
68′J. MacIntyreS. Stewart
72′L. SoleR. Duncan
72′L. StewartD. E. Osong
76′A. MackinnonR. MacGregor
77′G. ReillyA. Winter
77′R. DowC. Daly
85′A. BavidgeN. Boutin

Tulloch Caledonian Stadium, InvernessReferee: S. Murdoch

Inverness CT 61%
Draw 24%
Arbroath 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Inverness CT vs Arbroath overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Inverness CT vs Arbroath

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityInverness CTDrawArbroath
Model58.0%27.3%14.7%
Market62.1%23.2%14.7%
Final61.1%24.2%14.7%
Edge-4.1%+4.1%-0.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Inverness CT

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.67.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Inverness CT ↓ / Arbroath → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 1 15% 12% 2 13% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Inverness CT and Arbroath expected goals

Inverness CT 1.58
Arbroath 0.67

Total expected goals: 2.25

Inverness CT and Arbroath attack and defence ratings

Inverness CT

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Arbroath

Attack 0.66 -34%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Inverness CT vs Arbroath: result vs prediction

Inverness CT 2 – 0 Arbroath

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Scotland Championship

Before and after this match

Inverness CT vs Arbroath markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Inverness CT 61.1% 1.64 -4.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.9% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score No 60.0% 1.67 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.3% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.0% 2.38 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Inverness CT61.1%
Draw24.2%
Arbroath14.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.1%
Under 2.560.9%
Both teams to scoreYes40.0%
No60.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.3%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)38.9%
Handicap -1Inverness CT win32.0%
Push (exactly one goal)26.0%
Loss42.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.5%
2-013.1%
1-112.3%

Inverness CT vs Arbroath stats

Inverness CT and Arbroath recent form

newest first
Inverness CT LWWDWL
Arbroath LLWLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Inverness CT and Arbroath going into this match

league record before kick-off

Inverness CT record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Arbroath record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Inverness CT vs Arbroath head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Inverness CT wins 3Draws 4Arbroath wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-08ArbroathInverness CTScotland Championship0-0
2025-04-26Inverness CTArbroathLeague One3-0
2025-02-08ArbroathInverness CTLeague One3-0
2024-12-14Inverness CTArbroathLeague One0-2
2024-10-05ArbroathInverness CTLeague One1-0
2024-07-23Inverness CTArbroathLeague Cup0-0
2024-04-06Inverness CTArbroathChampionship2-1
2024-02-24ArbroathInverness CTChampionship1-1
2023-12-16Inverness CTArbroathChampionship1-2
2023-09-30ArbroathInverness CTChampionship2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Inverness CT vs Arbroath odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.5%, draw 23.3%, away 15.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.45 3.88 6.23
Bet365 1.48 3.80 5.75
BetVictor 1.45 4.00 6.50
Betano 1.55 3.80 5.50
Betfair 1.50 4.20 6.00
Dafabet 1.51 4.10 6.00
Marathonbet 1.44 3.88 5.95
Pinnacle 1.48 4.30 6.80
William Hill 1.44 3.90 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.45 ▼ -0.09
X 3.89 ▲ +0.14
2 6.12 ▲ +0.62

13 snapshots recorded, from .