Livingston
vs
Arbroath
Garuda Lions Prediction: Livingston
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Livingston vs Arbroath overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Livingston vs Arbroath
| Probability | Livingston | Draw | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.5% | 27.5% | 14.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 58.5% | 27.5% | 14.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Livingston
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Livingston vs Arbroath match preview
Livingston enters this match with a 58% probability of winning against Arbroath, who has a 14% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Livingston, with a 16% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Livingston will score around 1.55 while Arbroath is projected to net approximately 0.64.
In terms of recent form, Livingston has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Arbroath has struggled with four losses and one win in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows that both teams have won one match each in their last two encounters. Overall, the confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Livingston and Arbroath expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Livingston and Arbroath attack and defence ratings
Livingston
Arbroath
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Livingston vs Arbroath markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livingston | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livingston | 58.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Arbroath | 14.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.2% |
| No | 61.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Livingston win | 32.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.4% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.3% |
| 2-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
Livingston vs Arbroath stats
Livingston and Arbroath recent form
| Livingston |
DLLWDW |
| Arbroath |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Livingston and Arbroath season so far
Livingston record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Arbroath record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Livingston vs Arbroath head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Arbroath | Livingston | Scotland Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-07-05 | Livingston | Arbroath | Friendlies Clubs | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.