Arbroath
vs
Raith Rovers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Raith Rovers
0 – 1 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.62.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Raith Rovers is the favourite, not a value bet.
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arbroath vs Raith Rovers
| Probability | Arbroath | Draw | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.3% | 31.1% | 52.6% |
| Market | 21.9% | 28.2% | 50.0% |
| Final | 20.5% | 28.9% | 50.6% |
| Edge | -1.4% | +0.7% | +0.7% |
Why Raith Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (our 50.6% × 1.91 − 1).
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers match preview
Arbroath faces Raith Rovers in the Scotland Championship with a model probability of 16% for an Arbroath victory, 31% for a draw, and 53% for Raith Rovers to win. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with an 18% chance. Arbroath has struggled recently, recording four losses and one win in their last six matches, while Raith Rovers has a mixed form with two wins, two draws, and two losses in their last six games.
Expected goals for Arbroath stand at 0.62, compared to Raith Rovers' 1.32, indicating a potential challenge for Arbroath in scoring. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 31%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 35%. In their last ten encounters, Arbroath has secured three wins, Raith Rovers four, and there have been three draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arbroath and Raith Rovers expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.94
Arbroath and Raith Rovers attack and defence ratings
Arbroath
Raith Rovers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raith Rovers | 50.6% | 1.98 | +0.7% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 20.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Raith Rovers | 50.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.1% |
| No | 64.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.7% | |
| Loss | 47.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 17.8% |
| 0-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers stats
Arbroath and Raith Rovers recent form
| Arbroath |
LLLLWL |
| Raith Rovers |
LDWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arbroath and Raith Rovers season so far
Arbroath record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
Raith Rovers record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Raith Rovers | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Arbroath | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Raith Rovers | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Arbroath | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Raith Rovers | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-03 | Raith Rovers | Arbroath | Championship | 5-0 |
| 2024-03-01 | Arbroath | Raith Rovers | Championship | 3-2 |
| 2023-12-30 | Raith Rovers | Arbroath | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-13 | Arbroath | Raith Rovers | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-04-15 | Raith Rovers | Arbroath | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.9%, draw 28.2%, away 50.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.16 | 3.14 | 1.83 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.30 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.30 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 3.25 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.90 |
| Marathonbet | 4.05 | 3.14 | 1.81 |
| Pinnacle | 4.23 | 3.24 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.10 | 1.91 |