Partick
vs
Morton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Partick
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.46.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Partick is the favourite, not a value bet.
Partick vs Morton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Partick vs Morton
| Probability | Partick | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.2% | 22.2% | 7.6% |
| Market | 76.6% | 15.3% | 8.0% |
| Final | 75.0% | 17.0% | 7.9% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +1.7% | -0.1% |
Why Partick
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.46.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (our 75.0% × 1.24 − 1).
Partick vs Morton match preview
Partick faces Morton in the Scotland Championship with a strong probability of victory for the home side, estimated at 70%. Recent form shows Partick has been performing well, recording four wins and two draws in their last six matches. In contrast, Morton has struggled, with only two wins in their last six outings and three consecutive losses.
The expected goals indicate a significant advantage for Partick, projected at 1.84 compared to Morton's 0.46. The most likely scoreline suggested by our model is 1-0, occurring 18% of the time. Additionally, there is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% probability that both teams will score. Historically, Partick has dominated their recent encounters with Morton, winning three of the last five matches and drawing the other two.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Partick and Morton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Partick and Morton attack and defence ratings
Partick
Morton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Partick vs Morton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Partick | 75.0% | 1.33 | -1.6% | 1.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.1% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Partick win | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Partick | 75.0% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Morton | 7.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.9% |
| No | 68.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Partick win | 43.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.6% | |
| Loss | 29.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.6% |
| 2-0 | 17.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Partick vs Morton stats
Partick and Morton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Partick and Morton season so far
Partick record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Morton record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Partick vs Morton head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Morton | Partick | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Morton | Partick | Scotland Championship | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Partick | Morton | Scotland Championship | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Morton | Partick | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Partick | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Partick vs Morton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.6%, draw 15.3%, away 8.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 6.20 | 12.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 5.75 | 11.50 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 5.30 | 10.25 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 6.20 | 12.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.19 | 6.48 | 11.43 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.00 | 12.00 |