Stenhousemuir
vs
Livingston
Garuda Lions Prediction: Livingston
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Livingston is the favourite, not a value bet.
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stenhousemuir vs Livingston
| Probability | Stenhousemuir | Draw | Livingston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 33.9% | 27.4% |
| Market | 21.9% | 25.9% | 52.2% |
| Final | 26.1% | 27.9% | 46.0% |
| Edge | +4.2% | +2.0% | -6.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.1% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 1.78 − 1).
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston match preview
Stenhousemuir faces Livingston in the Scotland Championship with the probabilities indicating a close contest. Stenhousemuir has a 34% chance of winning, while Livingston is slightly favored at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at an 8% probability, with expected goals showing Stenhousemuir at 1.30 and Livingston at 0.71.
Both teams have had mixed recent performances, with Stenhousemuir recording a draw followed by four consecutive wins, while Livingston has two wins in their last five matches. In their last eight encounters, Livingston has dominated with six victories compared to Stenhousemuir's single win and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stenhousemuir and Livingston expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.94
Stenhousemuir and Livingston attack and defence ratings
Stenhousemuir
Livingston
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livingston | 46.0% | 2.17 | -6.2% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stenhousemuir | 26.1% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Livingston | 46.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.4% |
| No | 60.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Livingston win | 9.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 72.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.8% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 14.2% |
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston stats
Stenhousemuir and Livingston recent form
| Stenhousemuir |
LDLWWW |
| Livingston |
WDLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stenhousemuir and Livingston season so far
Stenhousemuir record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
Livingston record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Livingston | Stenhousemuir | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Stenhousemuir | Livingston | League Cup | 0-0 |
| 2023-01-21 | Stenhousemuir | Livingston | FA Cup | 1-3 |
| 2020-11-10 | Stenhousemuir | Livingston | League Cup | 0-4 |
| 2017-04-15 | Stenhousemuir | Livingston | League One | 0-1 |
| 2017-03-21 | Livingston | Stenhousemuir | League One | 1-0 |
| 2016-12-13 | Stenhousemuir | Livingston | League One | 0-4 |
| 2016-08-20 | Livingston | Stenhousemuir | League One | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.9%, draw 25.9%, away 52.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.15 | 3.44 | 1.74 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.78 |
| Marathonbet | 4.05 | 3.44 | 1.72 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .