Ayr Utd
vs
Queen's Park
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ayr Utd
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.57.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ayr Utd is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park
| Probability | Ayr Utd | Draw | Queen's Park |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.1% | 32.2% | 15.7% |
| Market | 51.3% | 26.8% | 21.9% |
| Final | 51.5% | 28.2% | 20.4% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +1.3% | -1.5% |
Why Ayr Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (our 51.5% × 1.80 − 1).
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park match preview
Ayr Utd hosts Queen's Park in the Scotland Championship with a 52% probability of winning according to our model, while a draw stands at 32% and Queen's Park at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 19% chance of occurring. Ayr Utd's expected goals are 1.26, compared to Queen's Park's 0.57, indicating a stronger attacking performance anticipated from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Ayr Utd has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last six matches (L-D-W-L-W-L), whereas Queen's Park has struggled significantly, losing five of their last six encounters (L-L-W-L-L-L). Historically, in their last ten meetings, Ayr Utd has secured three wins, while Queen's Park has two, with five matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.82
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park attack and defence ratings
Ayr Utd
Queen's Park
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 51.5% | 1.94 | +0.2% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 51.5% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Queen's Park | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.2% |
| No | 67.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.2% | |
| Loss | 47.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.1% |
| 0-0 | 17.3% | |
| 2-0 | 12.7% |
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park stats
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park recent form
| Ayr Utd |
LDWLWL |
| Queen's Park |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park season so far
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Queen's Park record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Queen's Park | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 0-2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Queen's Park | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Ayr Utd | Queen's Park | Scotland Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Queen's Park | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Ayr Utd | Queen's Park | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Ayr Utd | Queen's Park | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-04 | Queen's Park | Ayr Utd | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2024-11-16 | Ayr Utd | Queen's Park | Championship | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-21 | Queen's Park | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-23 | Ayr Utd | Queen's Park | Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.3%, draw 26.8%, away 21.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.46 | 4.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.46 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.55 | 4.32 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 |