Morton
vs
Ayr Utd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ayr Utd
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ayr Utd is the favourite, not a value bet.
Morton vs Ayr Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Morton vs Ayr Utd
| Probability | Morton | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.7% | 32.5% | 33.8% |
| Market | 29.4% | 28.1% | 42.5% |
| Final | 30.5% | 29.2% | 40.3% |
| Edge | +1.1% | +1.1% | -2.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.3% per unit staked (our 40.3% × 2.20 − 1).
Morton vs Ayr Utd match preview
Morton faces Ayr Utd in a matchup where Ayr Utd holds a slight advantage with a 40% probability of winning compared to Morton's 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Morton could score 2.00 while Ayr Utd is projected at 1.43.
Recent form shows Morton with four wins followed by two losses, while Ayr Utd has a mixed record of two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches. In their last ten encounters, Morton has secured 2 wins, Ayr Utd 3 wins, with 5 matches ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Morton and Ayr Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
Morton and Ayr Utd attack and defence ratings
Morton
Ayr Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Morton vs Ayr Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 40.3% | 2.48 | -2.2% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 30.5% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Ayr Utd | 40.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.1% |
| No | 55.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win | 12.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.3% | |
| Loss | 73.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
Morton vs Ayr Utd stats
Morton and Ayr Utd recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Morton and Ayr Utd season so far
Morton record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Morton vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-08 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-28 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-08 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Morton vs Ayr Utd odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 28.0%, away 42.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.14 | 3.22 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.18 |
| Marathonbet | 3.06 | 3.22 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.26 | 3.39 | 2.20 |
| SBO | 2.86 | 3.00 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .