Morton
vs
Ayr Utd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ayr Utd
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Morton vs Ayr Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Morton vs Ayr Utd
| Probability | Morton | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.7% | 32.5% | 33.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.7% | 32.5% | 33.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Morton vs Ayr Utd match preview
Morton faces Ayr Utd in the Scotland Championship with both teams having an equal probability of winning at 34%. The model predicts a closely contested match, with a likely scoreline of 0-1 in favor of Ayr Utd at 11%. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Morton recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Ayr Utd has one win, two draws, and three losses in the same period.
The expected goals for both teams stand at 1.06, indicating a balanced offensive output. Additionally, there is a 44% probability that both teams will score, while the likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals is at 36%. The historical head-to-head shows Morton with 2 wins, Ayr Utd with 3 wins, and 5 draws in their last 10 encounters, suggesting a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Morton and Ayr Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Morton and Ayr Utd attack and defence ratings
Morton
Ayr Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Morton vs Ayr Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 33.8% | 2.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 33.7% |
| Draw | 32.5% | |
| Ayr Utd | 33.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win | 13.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 66.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
Morton vs Ayr Utd stats
Morton and Ayr Utd recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Morton and Ayr Utd season so far
Morton record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Morton vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-08 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-28 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-08 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.