Largs Thistle
vs
Ayr Utd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Largs Thistle
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd
| Probability | Largs Thistle | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.0% | 20.7% | 13.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 66.0% | 20.7% | 13.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Largs Thistle
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.90.
Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd match preview
Largs Thistle enters the match against Ayr Utd with a strong probability of winning at 66%, while Ayr Utd has a lower chance of 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Largs Thistle's expected goals stand at 2.20, significantly higher than Ayr Utd's 0.90, indicating a potential dominance in offensive play.
Recent form shows Largs Thistle with two consecutive wins, while Ayr Utd has been inconsistent, recording a win, two losses, a draw, and another loss in their last five matches. The model suggests a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score, reflecting an expectation for a competitive match despite Ayr Utd's recent struggles.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Largs Thistle and Ayr Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Largs Thistle and Ayr Utd attack and defence ratings
Largs Thistle
Ayr Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Ross County v Brora Rangers — match page
- Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers — team news & stats
- Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
- Montrose v Hamilton Academical — match page
- Annan Athletic vs Morton — team news & stats
- Elgin City vs Partick
- Peterhead v Edinburgh City — match page
- Queen's Park vs Spartans — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Largs Thistle | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Largs Thistle win | 43.4% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Largs Thistle | 66.0% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Ayr Utd | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Largs Thistle win | 43.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 34.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.9% |
| 1-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd stats
Largs Thistle and Ayr Utd recent form
| Largs Thistle |
WW |
| Ayr Utd |
LWLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.